GOLD SHEET TUESDAY, MARCH 16
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
NCAA Play-in game at UD Dayton Arena, Dayton, Ohio
Arkansas Pine-Bluff 55 - Winthrop 53--While popular opinion seems to dismiss Big Dance virgin and SWAC Tourney champ Pine Bluff because of its less-than-impressive 0-11 SU break from the gate this season, a quick glimpse at the Golden Lions' early schedule might cast a different light on things. Pine Bluff ran a gauntlet on the road, losing at Arizona State, Michigan, Akron, UTEP, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, and Kansas State without getting embarrassed at any of those tough stops (maybe Seth Greenberg ought to consult APB HC George Ivory on future non-conference scheduling). Winthrop is a familiar NCAA participant, but don't compare this Eagle team to some of former HC Gregg Marshall's recent accomplished editions, as the current Winthrop lacks go-to scoring threats (soph G Reggie Middleton the only DD scorer at 10.3 ppg), hit on only 38% of its FGs, and was only the 3rd seed in the recent Big South Tourney that it won over Coastal Carolina in the finale. Pine Bluff starts an all-sr. lineup, and G Allen Smith dominated in the SWAC Tourney when the Golden Lions' aggressive "D" was on display in the finale, holding Texas Southern to only 38 points. APB's ballhandling and perimeter-shooting flaws are countered by its board-crashing strength which can help vs. this beatable Big South foe.
NIT
CONNECTICUT 70 - Northeastern 67--Bitterly disappointing campaign for NCAA tourney regular Connecticut and venerable mentor Jim Calhoun, who took Huskies all the way to Final Four just last year. UConn dropped its last four games and is just 6-12 straight up since early January. That tailspin largely due to sub-par backcourt play from scattershot sr. Jerome Dyson (just 29% from three-point arc) and careless soph Kemba Walker. Enter pesky Northeastern, where Calhoun cut his coaching teeth back in the '70s. Sure, smallish NU (also Huskies) might get pounded on glass by bigger host. But unless Dyson & Walker suddenly get their act together, UConn fortunate just to escape with victory over veteran dog that has plenty of bite.
SOUTH FLORIDA 69 - North Carolina State 60--Not sure how much N.C. State has left in the tank after its impressive showing in the recent ACC tourney, where the Wolfpack surprisingly made it the semifinals while covering all three of its games. South Florida a MAJOR bankroll buddy this season, going 20-10-1 vs. spread, including 11-4-1 over its last 15 games. Like the Bulls more as a dog than a favorite, but they own (by far) the top perimeter gun on the floor in NBA-caliber jr. G Dominique Jones (21.3 ppg). And USF also has enough size with 6-10 Augustus Gilchrist, who's back near 100% after missing nearly two months with a foot injury, and 6-11 jr. Jarrid Famous to battle State top dog Tracy Smith (16.9 ppg & 7.5 rpg) to a standstill in the paint.
UAB 68 - Coastal Carolina 63--Every year there are several squads that feel they deserved an at-large invitation to the "Big Dance," only to be passed over by the tournament committee and relegated to the NIT. UAB falls squarely into that category, and it's far from guaranteed the bummed-out Blazers will be motivated by the snub, as just as many jilted teams end up playing as if they're "just unhappy to be here." While Birmingham scouts assure the host would love to make a statement in this NIT opener, that might be easier said than done vs. Big South regular season champ Coastal Carolina. The veteran Chanticleers have 28 victories and more than enough firepower (75 ppg on 48% FGs) to stay close to low-octane UAB.
SETON HALL 87 - Texas Tech 85--Interested in taking generous points in this anticipated shootout. Seton Hall (81 ppg--No. 8 in the nation) can light the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but the Pirates usually give (75 ppg) nearly as much they get, and frequently more. Same for Texas Tech. The Hall has bombs-away 6-5 jr. G Jeremy Hazell (20.9 ppg), one of the top scorers in the Big East, and savvy sr. PG Eugene Harvey, a four-year starter. Red Raiders counter with slashing 6-6 jr. Mike Singletary (14.7 ppg & 6.8 rpg), accurate sr. G Nick Okorie (11 ppg, 41% from three-point arc), and jr. PG John Roberson (14.7 ppg, 41% treys, 5.6 apg), one of the top playmakers in the Big XII. Pirates just 8-16-1 vs. the spread on the season.
William & Mary 65 - NORTH CAROLINA 64--Connecticut and North Carolina!?!?! Sure, taking pleasure in the misfortune of others (schadenfruede) is not an admirable quality. But who can blame the NIT for being delighted at landing two of the nation's most storied programs in the same year? If veteran William & Mary is good enough to claim victories at Wake Forest & Maryland, two ACC teams that earned NCAA invitations, what's to stop the Tribe from taking down the discombobulated defending national champion Tar Heels, who, until late February, were in danger of finishing sub-.500 and not even making this tournament? Even if UNC is able to avoid an embarrassing upset, well-coached W&M (13-2 as a dog this year!) has an excellent chance to stay inside substantial impost.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 78 - Jackson State 60--We have little doubt that Mississippi State, if properly focused & motivated, can pretty much name the margin against Jackson State. After all, the Tigers absorbed some terrible beatings during pre-conference play, including a 92-39 (!!!) drubbing at Tulsa. Still, the Bulldogs can't help but be a little down in the dumps after a brutal Sunday that saw them lose the SEC title game to Kentucky by single point in overtime, then be passed over for an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney despite 23 victories. Little Jackson State will be jacked up for a chance to take on one of Mississippi's big boys. And the Tigers did dominate the SWAC during the regular season before they were taken out in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney by Grambling and some highly-suspect refereeing (58 fouls were whistled in that game!).
ARIZONA STATE 67 - Jacksonville 46--Even coaches familiar with Herb Sendek's ASU defense complain about how much time it takes to adjust their offenses to the Sun Devils' shifting matchup zone. So, don't like the Dolphins' chances when traveling west, then playing on an unfamiliar court. Jacksonville (42% FGs) is not a dynamic offense to begin with. So, if ASU shooters Ty Abbott and Latvian Ricard Kuksiks can get their chins off their chests after missing out on the NCAA tourney, Sun Devils should pull away.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
TUESDAY, MARCH 16
Virginia Commonwealth 81 - GEORGE WASHINGTON 73--Compelling regional matchup between nearby foes that remarkably haven't faced one another since 1979. We expect racehorse GWU will take the bait from VCU and engage the Rams in a fullcourt game, which the CAA rep will certainly welcome. And though Karl Hobbs' A-10 team is capable of playing uptempo all night with a bench that goes 11 deep, transition ball plays into the strength of VCU, whose "bigs" Larry Sanders and Jamie Skeen can effectively get up and down the court, while long-range bombers Joey Rodriguez and Bradford Burgess should get plenty of clear looks from the perimeter. GWU's firepower quotient reduced a bit in recent weeks as 6-5 Rip Hamilton-like frosh G Lasan Kromah (just 6.8 ppg last 4 after scoring at least 22 in previous three) began to slump.
SAINT LOUIS 58 - Indiana State 54--With eleven days off since its last game at "Arch Madness" at this St. Louis site, ISU at least better rested than it has been since November, before injury woes began to take their toll. And high-scorer G Harry Marshall (who led MVC scorers with 16.2 ppg in league action) is probably out again after re-aggravating a foot injury that caused him to miss most of February action. But the late-season absences of Marshall and fellow backcourt ace Dwayne Lathan (who has since returned to action) allowed HC Kevin McKenna to blood some frosh who stepped admirably into the breach when the Sycamores covered a lot of games in February. Relying as Sycamores do from perimeter is risky business vs. SLU's nation-best 3-point defense (Bills allow just 27.1% beyond arc). But Rick Majerus' teams played most of 'em close (8 of last 11 wins by 5 or fewer), and Bills will have trouble extending margin in expected half-court chess match.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNEY (CIT)
TUESDAY, MARCH 16
Fairfield 71 - GEORGE MASON 68--CAA observers remain a bit puzzled by Jim Larranaga's GMU squad that was still making "un-Larranaga-like" mistakes in backcourt as season progressed and ended up with subpar 2-7 chalk mark at its usual Patriot Center fortress. Such uncharacteristic lack of hoop smarts could come back to bite Patriots again vs. scrappy Fairfield bunch that earned some rave reviews down stretch from Metro-Atlantic observers and rallied from 15-point halftime deficit to force league power Siena into OT in conference tourney finale. Emergence of MAAC Rookie of Year frosh G Derek Needham (16.3 ppg) to team with post threat Anthony Johnson (15.7 ppg) gives Stags the sort of 1-2 punch they need to prevail at Fairfax.
MARSHALL 69 - Western Carolina 64--Potentially troubling fundamental matchup in this one for WCU against Marshall's 7-0 frosh C Hassan Whiteside, who along with fellow Herd frontline mate 6-9 Tyler Wilkerson could pose some problems for the smaller Catamounts. And 23-9 Marshall might be a bit angry at being passed over by the NIT as well as looking to unleash some frustrations after C-USA Tourney meltdown vs. Tulsa. But WCU capable of playing Herd within single digits, as Catamounts are well-balanced (top 6 score between (8.4-11.9 ppg), own a "ball thief deluxe" in SoCon steals leader Brandon Waginger, were good enough to win at Louisville in mid-December, and turned around February pointspread slide with competitive BracketBusters effort at Kent State.
CREIGHTON 78 - South Dakota 68--This is a "Gold Sheet debut" of sorts for South Dakota, which qualified for the CIT after Coyotes won last week's Great West Conference Tournament, a collection of otherwise wayward I-A Independents who convened at Utah Valley's campus in Orem, UT for a chance to compete in this event. South Dakota's 3-G offense is pretty well-balanced (three top scorers, led by F Tyler Cain, scoring between 13.1-14.7 ppg), and Coyotes have some size in 6-11 C Steve Smith. Note that Creighton will play this one at the old Omaha Civic Auditorium (new Qwest Center has been booked this week), and this has been a trying season for Dana Altman, with chemistry issues exacerbated by suspension of G P'Allen Stinnett, and uncharacteristic inconsistency beyond arc (only 32%). Class edge to Bluejays, but not sure we want to lay in the mid-teens with disappointed hosts.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
NIT
DAYTON 61 - Illinois State 59--We've waited long enough for Dayton to begin resembling last year's NCAA second-round team. Maybe it's just not going to happen, as six losses in the Flyers' last nine games seems to confirm. Dayton simply didn't adapt well when foes were able to slow the pace and force Flyers into half-court basketball, which is Illinois State's strength. Redbirds (solid 5-2 as visiting dog this year) have enough weapons in G Osiris Eldridge (15.7 ppg) and F Dinma Odiakosa (12.9 ppg & 61% from floor) to find holes in Dayton's defense and keep this one very interesting.
CINCINNATI 64 - Weber State 57--Although Weber State still probably having nightmares about Big Sky Tourney final nightmare and Montana G Anthony Johnson (who scored 42!), in particular after the Wildcats blew a 22-point lead vs. Grizzlies, the Big Sky regular-season champs from Ogden are not without enough credentials to warrant a recommendation against an overvalued Cincy squad that was a constant moneyburner at Fifth Third Arena (just 1-9 vs. line!) all season. WSU has some beef in paint in rugged 240-lb. C Steve Panos to bang with Bearcats on blocks, while presence of electric G Damian Lillard (19.7 ppg) should prevent Wildcats from going in cold stretches that could allow Cincy to stretch margin.
Northwestern 69 - RHODE ISLAND 65--Not particularly excited to lay points with Rhode Island bunch that once again ran out of gas as March approached and played itself of the NCAA bubble once again. And since Rams covered only 3 of their last 11 as chalk and dropped 6 of last 10 SU, we're not even sure Jim Baron's squad survives against combative Northwestern bunch that won't flinch at a trip to Kingston after a full season of grueling Big Ten wars. Cats squadron of 3-point bombers led by F John Shurna (18.3 ppg) good enough to help Bill Carmody post a 6-2 visiting dog mark this season. NU's conscientious defense on the perimeter will come in handy vs. URI, which has struggled with its shooting down the stretch and is coming off a season-worst 27% FG shooting performance in A-10 Tourney semifinal loss vs. Temple.
VIRGINIA TECH 78 - Quinnipiac 58--Dick Vitale's support or not, we're not completely comfy with potentially depressed VPI squad that was cruelly denied another Big Dance bid at the last minute and has been banished once more to the NIT, where Hokies didn't seem all that excited to be in a similar spot last season (needed 2 OTs to get past Duquesne in Blacksburg before getting whipped by Baylor). But hard as we try, we're not finding a lot of evidence to suggest the Pollsters, er, Bobcats, from Quinnipiac can step up and compete vs. an ACC foes, with sketchy evidence from December losses vs. UMass and Rhode Island (not to mention losses at Lehigh and Navy) making us wonder if the "Q" can deal with Seth Greenberg's athletes. Slight preference for VPI's ACC pedigree.
KENT STATE 80 - Tulsa 70--This isn't where Kent State expected to be this week, as Golden Flashes (top seed in MAC Tourney) were convinced they were going to the Big Dance instead. But after uncharacteristic showing in MAC semis vs. Ohio (when Golden Flashes shot just 25% from floor en route to 16-point halftime deficit), expect Geno Ford's squad to bounce back at the MAC Center, where it has won 8 in a row. Flashes' defensive backcourt stoppers Chris Singletary & Rodriquez Sherman are good matchups vs. Tulsa Gs Ben Uzoh & Justin Hurtt, and Golden Hurricane's 7-0 sr. C Jerome Jordan not always a dominant force in paint. Too many lackluster efforts down stretch suggest some possible chemistry problems for Tulsa, which enters having lost 7 of last 12 (loss margin 13 ppg those defeats).
WICHITA STATE 72 - Nevada 69--Are we back at the BracketBusters? Nevada familiar with trips to the Missouri Valley after its narrow loss at Missouri State in late February, and fundamentals suggest Wolf Pack could be a pretty interesting dog at the Roundhouse. Nevada's go-to scorers F Luke Babbitt (22.1 ppg) and G Armon Johnson (15.8 ppg) certainly capable of keeping Wolf Pack close, although David Carter could be in some difficulty if foul trouble exposes his then bench (Pack really only goes 6-deep these days). Wichita encouraged that C Garrett Stutz & G Demetric Williams emerged as options on attack end in recent weeks, but we'd rather not trust Shockers, who have covered just 3 of last 10 on board.
OLE MISS 77 - Troy 67--Troy not likely to be intimidated by this trip to Oxford after visiting SEC venues Florida and Auburn (where it beat the Tigers) in pre-league play, not to mention other road trips to UAB, Marshall, and Houston. And despite sacrificing a bit of quickness to Ole Miss star Gs Chris Warren, Terrico White and their friends, Trojans' savvy, all-sr. starting lineup paced by All-Sun Belt Gs Brandon Hazzard (16.6 ppg) & Richard Delk (12.2 ppg) unlikely to get embarrassed by Rebs' G-heavy lineup. There's enough firepower in Troy lineup (scoring a Belt-best 75.1 ppg) to stay within earshot
MEMPHIS 66 - St. John's 64--Potentially dicey psychological spot for St. John's, with some of the Big Apple press corps reporting that HC Norm Roberts is already on his way out the door. But with no official announcement just yet, we'll assume Red Storm will keep playing as hard for its coach as it did down the stretch when winning on the road at Notre Dame and South Florida, rallying from a big deficit to win in 3 OTs at DePaul, then punishing UConn and taking Marquette to the limit in Big East Tourney. Johnnies' 6-6 jr. D.J. Kennedy (15 ppg) emerging as go-to threat, and style clash would seem to favor Red Storm, which has the snippy backcourt defenders to pester Memphis G Elliot Williams and physical enough in paint to knock undersized Tiger frontline off its pins in a preferred half-court tempo.
Illinois 74 - STONY BROOK 61--So much for Cirque du Soleil, which was booked this week at the Assembly Hall in Champaign-Urbana and forced Illinois (which was thinking it might be bound for NCAA sub-regional action this week) to instead trek to the far reaches of Long Island for this NIT opener at America East reg,-season champ Stony Brook, which was also thinking it would be Big Dance-bound before losing in conference tourney vs. Boston U. Not terribly comfy laying points on road anywhere with bipolar Fighting Illini. But if focused at all, Demetri McCamey & Co. should take care of business vs. Seawolves, who were hardly tested vs. significant opposition in pre-league slate (lost by 8 at St. John's in one major test, but were also creamed by 16 at woeful Fordham). Stony Brook's smallish 3-G lineup likely to be eventually overpowered by a legit Big Ten frontline featuring 7-1 Mike Tisdale and 6-9 Mike Davis.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
PRINCETON 67 - Duquesne 58--Fascinating style clash between deliberate, defense-solid Princeton and uptempo Duquesne bunch that often decides to take off possessions on stop end. And it's for that reason that we don't like the fundamentals in this matchup for Dukes, who have not demonstrated the defensive discipline necessary to cope with Tigers' well-orchestrated pass-and-screen motion offense. Expect Ivy rep to eventually find some cracks in Duquesne "D" as shot clock winds down and either get familiar back-door cuts or clear looks from perimeter. Dukes' HC Ron Everhart not happy with the way season ended for his troops (7-11 SU last 11) and suggested he'll use this game as an early audition for starting jobs...in 2010-11 campaign.
AKRON 67 - UW Green Bay 64--Not sure how enthused host Akron is going to be after coming so close to second straight Big Dance trip before being cruelly denied in OT by Ohio in Saturday night's MAC tourney finale. And if Zips don't bring their "A" game, well-rested UWGB (almost two weeks off since Horizon Tourney) capable of making this a 40-minute battle. Recent time off probably helped Fighting Phoenix G Troy Cotton, who seemed to run out of gas after January (no 20-point games since) and was only 2 for 9 from tripleville in Horizon Tourney), And note that Green Bay won a hefty 10 games away from Resch Center this season. After losing at home in the first round of this event vs. Vermont last March, expect Fighting Phoenix to at least go down swinging.
HOFSTRA 74 - Iupui 73--Hofstra owns premier go-to component on floor in explosive G Charles Jenkins (20.6 ppg), but Pride didn't always get other elements consistently involved on attack and was not a terribly reliable proposition when laying points on Long Island (just 4-7 in role). Remember, IUPUI owns more wins (24) than any team in this event and held its own (and then some) against some name opposition in on-conference play (comfortably beat Hofstra's CAA colleague Georgia State, won at Drake, and dumped Duquesne, was competitive at Kansas State and Notre Dame), has plenty of firepower (74.7 ppg, behind only Oakland in Summit), and has an explosive inside-outside scoring combo in 6-7 F Robert Glenn (19.5 ppg & 59% from floor) & 6-6 swingman Alex Young (18.4 ppg and comfy floating beyond arc).
College of Charleston 74 - EASTERN KENTUCKY 68--The Richmond venue provides an opportunity for EKU, which only lost twice at McBrayer Arena this season compared with dropping 10 of 14 SU chances on the road. But Colonels walk a pretty thin line against accomplished foes such as Bobby Cremins' Charleston, with EKU's lack of post presence and almost complete reliance on perimeter a recipe for problems against well-balanced opposition. Cremins' dynamic 3-G attack featuring Andrew Goudelock (19.4 ppg), Donavan Monroe (12.4 ppg) & Tony White, Jr. (11.8 ppg) all played in this event LY when Cougars advanced to second round and were good enough to help CC actually beat a few noteworthy foes (including North Carolina & George Mason, the latter on the road).
MOREHEAD STATE 70 - Colorado State 64--CSU not likely intimidated by Morehead venue after a season dealing with various Mountain West snakepits at places like Provo and Albuquerque. But fact is that noisy Ellis T. Johnson Arena is a pretty difficult place to succeed as well, and host Eagles enter on 13-game home win streak that includes a shocker against OVC champ Murray State on Feb. 25. Eagles' go-to threat 6-8 Kenneth Faried (16.8 ppg) might neutralize CSU's Andy Ogide on blocks, while Ram Gs Dorian Green & Adam Nigon were blowing very hot and cold beyond arc down stretch.
OREGON STATE 68 - Boston U 65--Knee-jerk reaction might simply be to back Craig Robinson's Oregon State squad that pleased the White House and shocked the college hoops world by actually winning this event a year ago. But Beavers had a couple of close calls along the way, and their patient style makes us a bit uncomfortable laying substantial points vs. scrappy Boston U bunch that made strides under first-year HC Pat Chambers, who arrived in Beantown from Jay Wright's Villanova staff. Terriers caught fire down stretch when winning their last six before dropping America East tourney title game vs. Vermont and competed well vs. top-flight opposition, playing Kansas State tough and beating Indiana at Puerto Rico in November. BU's 6-5 jr. swingman John Holland (19 ppg) and 6-2 sr. G Corey Lowe (15.1 ppg) provide enough pop to keep Terriers close.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
APPALACHIAN STATE 71 - Harvard 62--Tommy Amaker's Harvard hotshots might not get a very warm welcome in Boone, where the Smoky Mountain folk don't often get to razz a bunch of Yankee city slickers. And since the Crimson proved a pretender in the Ivy race when falling short vs. their only challenging foes Cornell & Princeton, we doubt Amaker has enough tricks up his sleeve to take down combative App State, whose dramatic rally vs. Wofford in the SoCon finale fell just short. Mountaineers' explosive G combo of Donald Sims (20 ppg) & Kellen Brand (11.5 ppg) will enjoy a chance to rough up Harvard counterpart Jeremy Lin, and note that Buzz Peterson's bunch had won 9 of its last 10 in tough SoCon before that narrow loss in conference tourney finale at Charlotte.
MISSOURI STATE 73 - Middle Tennessee State 60--MTSU was able to hang around vs. a couple of notable non-conference foes (played Marshall and UAB close), but also lacked the necessary offensive dimensions to beat any of them. And Blue Raiders (no starters taller than 6-7) aren't too big, either, which could be problematic vs. bigger MSU and 6-9 post threat Will Creekmore. Bears' 6-6 F Kyle Weems a devilish matchup (too big for Gs and too quick for most Fs), and remember that coach Cuonzo Martin's team got off to a fast 12-1 SU start this season (beating the likes of Auburn, Tulsa, and Saint Louis) against MTSU-level opposition.
Portland 68 - NORTHERN COLORADO 63--If they played this one back in December or the first half of January, we would have likely backed Greeley-based UNC, which was beating some representative opposition in the first half of the season (Hawaii, Air Force, Colorado State, Montana, San Jose State, TCU, and a 1-point loss at Oklahoma) before the wheels started to fall of at midseason and key G Devon Beitzel (14.3 ppg; part of a potent backcourt combo with waterbug 5-9 sr. Will Figures) went down with a foot injury in mid-February, contributing to 2-11 pointspread slide to end campaign. Bears also a bit undersized, which should allow Portland's 6-10 sr. post threat Robin Smeulders (12.6 ppg) some opportunities in paint. And minus Beitzel, UNC hard-pressed to trade points with pilots three-pronged G attack of Nik Raivio (14.1 ppg), T.J. Campbell (13.5 ppg), and 3-point ace Jared Stohl (11.5 ppg & 48% triples).
Pacific 75 - LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 69--At its best, LMU certainly capable of taking down UOP. But for recommendation purposes, Tigers' overall consistency a bit more comforting, not to mention fact that shrewd HC Bob Thomason has won a lot of games in postseasons past, including advancing to semifinals of this event LY. Big edge on stop end to the Tigers, as Lions often lose defensive focus, reflected in WCC-worst 76 ppg allowed and 39% beyond arc. Meanwhile, UOP boasts Big West's top defense, so as long as Thomason's perimeter weapons Gs Demetrece Young & Terrell Smith & F Pat Eveland don't combine to go 5 for 25 from floor (and 2 of 15 beyond arc) as they did in Big West semifinal loss vs. Long Beach, Tigers can advance.
THURSDAY, MARCH 18
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI
Georgetown 70 - Ohio 63--Kudos to Ohio (14) coach John Groce, who in just his second year with the Bobcats, led his team from a 7-9 regular season TY in the MAC to the conference title. Groce, who spent the previous four years under Thad Matta at Ohio State, has done an excellent job boosting the Ohio program, particularly by bringing in 6-2 Indiana transfer Armon Bassett (16.9 ppg) and 5-11 frosh dynamo D.J. Cooper (13 ppg), who also leads the team in assists (5.9 pg) and is one of the national leaders in steals (2.7 pg). But those two have plenty of help, with three other players averaging 9.7 ppg or more, not to mention 6-10 Dutch space-eater Kenneth van Kempen. The Bobcats led the MAC in scoring, hit their FTs (72%), and guarded the arc, allowing only 31% treys.
Yes, Georgetown (3) is likely to advance, thanks to its Big East pedigree, 6-11 C Greg Monroe (16 ppg, 9.5 rpg; arguably the best overall big man in the nation TY), marksman Austin Freeman (16.7 ppg; 45% treys), and rising PG Chris Wright (15 ppg, 4.1 apg). But the Hoyas couldn't be blamed for seeking to take Ohio in stride after four games in four days in last week's Big East tourney. The Bobcats' appear to have enough offense and muscle to hang tight.
Tennessee 63 - San Diego State 56--San Diego State (11) pulled one of the surprises of the conference tourney season, upsetting top-seeded New Mexico and then host-team UNLV to lock up the automatic berth from the Mountain West. Many in the eastern half of the nation might not be familiar with Steve Fisher's fast-arriving Aztecs, featuring 6-7 MWC Freshman of the Year Kawhi Leonard (12.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and 6-9 juco Malcom Thomas (11.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg; second team MWC), plus quick PG D.J. Gray. 6-8 sr. Billy White (11.2, 4.4) is the veteran who holds things together on a team that lost in LY's NIT semifinals. Unlike many other Fisher teams, SDS subdues foes with smothering defense (40.5% FGs). And like most Fisher teams, the rebounding is strong (+6 pg).
Tennessee (6), meanwhile, is coming off the worst loss of the Bruce Pearl era, a 74-45 waxing administered by revenge-minded Kentucky in the SEC semifinals. And the Volunteers had to fight through a disjointed campaign that was disrupted by midseason arrests and suspensions. But UT was playing well (7-1 SU, including that victory over UK) until that SEC tourney loss. And Pearl's players own much more Big Dance experience than the newly-jelled Aztecs. At a small pointspread, favor Wayne Chism, Scotty Hopson & crew, especially with a full week to think about that 29-point whuppin' applied by Kentucky.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI
Villanova 70 - Robert Morris 55--We don't think Nova (2) is at much upset risk against the Pittsburgh Airport's home team, Robert Morris (15), back in the Dance again after covering in the first round vs. eventual finalist Michigan State LY and an impressive winner of the Northeast Tourney finale at Quinnipiac's snakepit home court. Since Jay Wright's Wildcats seemed to lose a bit of traction in the final month, losing 5 of last 7 SU and dropping 8 of last 11 vs. line (albeit vs. stout Big East opposition), not sure we want to lay such a hefty price, especially when considering how a more in-sync Nova struggled in opening-round action LY vs. American U.
Respect Scottie Reynolds and the accomplished Cat backcourt, but Colonials snippy 3-G lineup plays non-stop defense (allowed just 2 of last 17 foes to crack 70-point barrier while permitting only 40% FGs and 32% treys TY) under former Pitt assistant Mike Rice, and we don't trust Wright's new-look, bigger frontcourt to take advantage of size edge after its inconsistent play over the last half of the campaign. RM's electric true frosh G Karon Abraham (44% triples) emerged as an excellent complement to sr.-laden Colonial lineup and was a dominant factor in recent conference tourney.
Richmond 70 - Saint Mary's 60--It's too bad these two quality mid-majors have to run into each other in the first round, as both were on our "go-with" list heading into the Dance. But if forced to choose, we'd rather trust Pete Carril-disciple Chris Mooney's intriguing Richmond (7) bunch that excelled in a bit tougher A-10 race than Saint Mary's (10) conference slate in the WCC. Not to discount Gaels, who own a legit "big" in 6-11 sr. Omar Samhan (21.5 ppg) and plenty of dagger-throwers from the perimeter, including underrated jr. G Mickey McConnell (51% treys). But Mooney's modified, high-tempo Princeton offense (which plays a few speeds faster than Carril's old teams) is difficult to prepare for on short notice, and longtime backcourt pairing of Kevin Anderson (17.8 pg) & David Gonzalvez (14.3 ppg) arguably one of the best G combos in Dance. If Spiders' 6-9 Darrius Garrett (who blocked 14 shots in a game earlier TY vs. UMass) can keep Samhan from dictating matters on blocks, Richmond should advance.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the New Orleans Arena in New Orleans, LA
Kentucky 92 - East Tennnessee State 64--While East Tennessee State (16) gave Pitt a scare in 72-62 1st round loss in the NCAAs year ago, the top two scorers graduated from that squad. And though overchieving ETS (5th seed in Atlantic Sun tourney) managed to overcome a season-ending injury to the leading returning scorer Mike Smith in December and to end the regular season on 6-game win streak, doubt that Murray Bartow's squad owns the firepower to hang around vs. powerful Kentucky (1).
Smallish ETS (tallest starter is 6-8 soph F ISIAh Brown), whose leading rebounder is 6-4 F Tommy Hubbard (14 ppg, 8 rpg), figures to get destroyed in the paint by the taller, stronger, deeper Wildcat forecourt (+9 rpg), spearheaded by future lottery pick 6-11 frosh F DeMarcus Cousins (16 ppg, 10 rpg, 2 bpg) and complementary 6-9 F Patrick Patterson (15 ppg, 8 rpg). And expect UK's SEC Player of the Year 6-4 PG John Wall (17 ppg, 6 apg, 4 rpg; 23 assists in SEC tourney) to easily break down Bucs' trapping 2-3 zone, when the fastbreak isn't available. On the other end, ETS lacks the consistent outside shooting (only 31% from arc) to stay competitive with a focused Wildcat squad that won't take Buccaneers for granted after they upset Arkansas and stayed reasonably close at both L'Ville (lost 69-59) and Tennessee (lost 78-66) in preconference. Plus, Kentucky will have plenty of fan support in New Orleans , and SEC is 62% play as Big Dance chalk since 2007.
Wake Forest 72 - Texas 71--Neither team exuding much confidence heading into this tourney, with Wake Forest (9) dropping 5 of its last 6 games and Texas (8) stumbling to 7-9 mark last 16 after bolting to a 17-0 record and No. 1 ranking in the polls. Horn HC Rick Barnes, who is a former Clemson HC and North Carolina native, bemoans, 'We've been so inconsistent, and it's not just one guy; if I knew how to fix it, I would. It's from game to game wondering who is going to do their job. And it's not so much sometimes effort-wise, it's mentally." And while everything hasn't been hunky dory for Deacon mentor Dino Gaudio, good chance you'll get an inspired effort from usually-productive 6-9 soph F Al-Farouq Aminu (16 ppg, 11 rpg), who was benched for considerable amount of time in disappointing 83-62 loss vs. Miami-Florida in 1st-round of ACC tourney.
No question that Texas' offensive execution has suffered greatly due to injuries to a pair of PGs Varez Ward early in season and Dogus Balbay later in campaign. So, would give edge at the critical playmaking position to Wake's speedy, battle-tested sr. Ishmael Smith (13 ppg, 6 apg), who should be able to find seams in sagging Longhorn defense allowing 79 ppg over last 5 games. Sure, UT's dynamic 6-7 F Damion James (18 ppg, 10 rpg) wants to end memorable career on a high note. But with frontline mate 6-10 sr C Dexter Pittman (10 ppg, 6 rpg) still unreliable and prone to foul trouble, and foul shooting (65%) still a major concern, prefer to "take" with senior-laden, tough-boarding (led ACC), defense-minded WF (38% FGs, 28% from arc). Note, Deacs' are a profitable 6-1 as a single-digit dog TY, including 77-75 upset at Gonzaga on Dec. 5.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the New Orleans Arena in New Orleans, LA
Baylor 84 - Sam Houston State 76--Sam Houston (14) rates at least a puncher's chance against anybody, thanks to its long-range shooting exploits, ranking 8rd nationally in 3-pointers pg (8.9) and putting a scare into Kentucky in November at Cancun when nailing 18 of 38 beyond arc. Proving that was no fluke, the Bearkats dismantled a competent Auburn team on the road a few weeks later when canning 15 of 28 triples at Beard-Eaves Coliseum. Of course, SHSU's proclivity from the perimeter can also boomerang (as it did in a 40-point loss at Wright State), but with 3 starters hitting better than 40% beyond arc and explosive G Corey Allmond (15.8 ppg; 11 triples vs. UK!) capable of detonating at any time, Bearkats might be able to stay within earshot of Baylor (3).
Bears might be able to extend margin if the smallish Southland champs (no starter over 6-6) can't deal with 6-10 Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh (13.4 ppg, 4.1 blocks pg), who has the ability to contain active Bearkat post threat 6-6 juco Gilberto Clavell (who burned Auburn for 34). But despite their recent accomplishments, Bears (no Big Dance wins since the early '50s!) are in pretty unfamiliar NCAA territory, and Sam Houston has more firepower than usually found in a lower seed.
Old Dominion 51 - Notre Dame 49--Can't argue with results, so must commend Notre Dame (6) and HC Mike Brey for making a conscious attempt to slow tempo in wake of sr. PF Luke Harangody's late-season injury. Irish subsequently caught fire down stretch and enter the Dance having won 6 f their last 7 vs. rugged Big East competition (and covering each of those games) while also going "under" in all as well. Moreover, Harangody has returned to the fold for Irish, which saw G Tory Jackson and F Carlton Scott assume more go-to roles in Gody's absence. But matchups vs. no-nonsense ODU (11) even have Digger Phelps concerned from his ESPN perch. Defensively-stout Monarchs (allowing only 57.1 ppg, 5th best in nation) don't mind a slower pace themselves, and rugged 6-10 C Gerald Lee (14.9 ppg) will make Harangody play some defense on the blocks. What really concerns Phelps and Irish backers, however, is ODU's size on the wings, where 6-5 types Ben Finney and Kent Bazemore have the wingspan to really disrupt opponents from the perimeter. Remember, Monarchs won at Georgetown in December, one of many noteworthy CAA non-conference results, and Colonial reps have been notoriously tough outs (think VCU, George Mason and even ODU) in recent Dances.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City, OK
Kansas 87 - Lehigh 66--Kansas (1), the top overall seed in the tourney this year, has the personnel, experience, depth, and team stats to blow out lowly Lehigh (16)...IF the Jayhawks were 100% focused from wire to wire. And eventual 2009 champion North Carolina, with similar characteristics to KU this season, covered all six of its tourney games LY. But HC Bill Self will likely choose this game to not only get key his key players properly grooved, but also to give some of his talented youngsters a significant taste of NCAA tourney experience, especially after LY's third-round loss to Michigan State.
Representing the Patriot League (10-8 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994), the Mountain Hawks (formerly the Engineers) from Bethlehem, PA, ended the season in excellent form, winning 18 of their last 22, with one of the losses in OT. Lehigh features a good blend of experience and youth, the latter exemplified by 6-3 C.J. McCollum, the leading freshman scorer (18.9 ppg) in the country. Statistically sound on offense (75 ppg, 40% triples), with decent quickness and good chemistry, the Hawks would seem to have a chance to key things interesting, considering this is the biggest pointspread in the first round.
Northern Iowa 56 - Unlv 50--Edges appear to be small between these two foes, but disciplined Northern Iowa (9) from Cedar Rapids could very well use its better balance to good advantage. UNLV (8), with 6-4 jr. Tre'Von Willis (17.3 ppg) and 6-8 soph Chace Stanback (10.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg)--both also first team Mountain West Conference defense--has more overall quickness.
But the Panthers (28-4 TY; the Missouri Valley regular and conference champs) have exploited their balance well TY, thanks to 7-1, 290 C Jordan Eglseder (12 ppg, 7.3 rpg), cagey 6-8 sr. PF Adam Koch (11.8 ppg), and mobile Gs Ali Farokhmanesh (the shooter) and Kwadzo Ahelegbe (the point)--the hardest-to-spell backcourt duo in the country. UNLV coach Lon Kruger (NCAA tourney with four schools) is postseason wise. But UNI coach Ben Jacobson has coached his Panther team all year to play "tournament style," with tough defense, patient shot selection, and clutch execution. Plus, the Panthers nail 75% from the FT line. MVC reps a notable 13-6-1 vs. the spread the last 6 tourneys.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City, OK
Kansas State 89 - North Texas 67--Credit longtime head coach Johnny Jones for navigating North Texas (15) through a well-balanced Sun Belt and back into the NCAA field for a second time in the last four years. The veteran Mean Green managed three conference tourney victories by a total of 12 points, barely surviving lightly-regarded LouiSIAna-Monroe in the quarterfinals before finally edging by Troy in the late going during the championship game. Count UNT among the "just-happy-to-be-here" teams, and its stay is likely to come an abrupt end against resurgent Kansas State (2). Jones' squad likes a fast tempo, which should play right into the hands of the Wildcats (80 ppg), who have dynamic slashers all over the floor, led by veteran Gs Jacob Pullen & Denis Clemente (combined 35 ppg). KSU and ultra-intense mentor Frank Martin still seething after suffering a third loss to rival Kansas in the Big XII title game. They'll take out their frustration on the outmanned Mean Green.
Byu 84 - Florida 75--It's been nearly two decades since BYU (7) won an NCAA tournament game, as the Cougars have been dismissed in the first round of their last seven trips to the "Big Dance." However, this year's squad looks like it has a good chance to finally advance to the weekend. Up-and-down Florida (10) barely eked into the field after losing four of its last five games. And Billy Donovan's youthful Gators (only one senior on the roster) are far from a finished product. Sure, 6-9 jr. F Chandler Parson's ability to float to the perimeter makes him a tough matchup. But shot selection is definitely not the forte of UF's impetuous young Gs frosh Kenny Boynton (only 29% from three-point arc) and soph Erving Walker. Prefer to lay a few points with more veteran BYU. The potent Cougars (83 ppg--second in the country) have oodles of reliable weapons, led by prolific jr. G Jimmer Fredette (21.7 ppg), who's gone for 30+ seven times this season. And any late BYU lead likely to grow, as Mike Rose's bunch hits a nation's-best 79% from the free-throw line.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA
Utep 73 - Butler 69--True, Horizon League heavyweight Butler (5) enters this event not having lost a game since before Christmas, its 20 straight victories the longest current winning streak in the nation. And the well-coached Bulldogs have a lot more recent NCAA tourney experience than Conference USA rep UTEP (12), which is making its first trip to the "Big Dance" since 2005. But the Miners appear to pose some very thorny match-up issues for Brad Stevens' squad. In particular, will Butler be able to deal with bullish 6-9, 275-lb. Derrick Caracter? Foul-prone 6-8 jr. Matt Howard is likely to need lots of help guarding the paint against Caracter (13.8 ppg & 8 rpg), a Louisville transfer, and 6-11 soph Arnett Moultrie (10.1 ppg & 6.8 rpg). And, if the Bulldogs have to collapse their perimeter defense around that duo, UTEP's prolific jr. G Randy Culpepper (18 ppg) is capable of taking full advantage. It won't be a big surprise if well-coached Butler & multi-dimensional 6-9 soph swingman Gordon Hayward figure out a way to somewhat mitigate the Miners' inside muscle. UTEP just appears to hold enough trump cards to make small upset likely.
Murray State 65 - Vanderbilt 64--It would be a major mistake to underestimate Vanderbilt (4) just because it hit some sour notes down the stretch. Sure, home loss to sub-.500 South Carolina in the regular-season finale and double-digit defeat vs. Mississippi State in SEC semifinals at friendly Nashville venue revealed some chinks in the Commodores' armor. But Vandy is still a very potent foe that can attack inside with polished 6-11 jr. C A.J. Ogilvy (13.4 ppg & 6.2 rpg), or rain bombs from the perimeter behind savvy sr. Jermaine Beal (team-leading 14.7 ppg) and confident frosh John Jenkins (48% from beyond three-point arc). It's just that the 'Dores happened to draw one tough cookie in the first round. Hungry Murray State (13), a former "Big Dance" regular making its first trip since 2006, has superb scoring balance, with six players averaging between 10 and 11 ppg! The Racers possess patience on offense (50.3% FGs--No. 3 in the country) and a righteous work ethic on defense (only 38.6% FGs--No. 11 nationally), including 6-9 sr. Tony Easley (2.7 bpg) to deal with the Aussie Ogilvy, who has a tendency to go "walkabout" when faced with stiff opposition. MSU has already notched a school-record 30 victories this season and definitely has the wherewithal to make it 31.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA
New Mexico 71 - Montana 67--Outside of the latest James Bond flick, we can't recall anyone taking on so many opponents by himself as did Montana's (14) G Anthony Johnson in the Big Sky finale vs. Weber State, when he single-handedly led the Grizzlies back from a 20-point halftime deficit by scoring a Bevo Francis-like 34 points in the last 20 minutes (including Montana's last 21 points of the game!) en route to 42-point effort to declaw the host Wildcats at Ogden. Now, we suspect Johnson is going to need a bit more help for the Grizzlies to turn the same trick vs. MWC regular-season champ New Mexico (3), which ran off 14 straight wins prior to a 1-point loss in the MWC Tourney semis vs. San Diego State.
Respect the various dynamic elements on Steve Alford's roster, paced by wondrous 6-7 juco Darrington Hobson (15.9 ppg) and glue G Dairese Gary (12.4 ppg) but also featuring scoring sources throughout lineup. But Montana was competitive vs. a representative non-conference slate (won comfortably at Oregon and home vs. Boise, beat Loyola-Marymount twice, and came within 4 of Washington at Seattle), has good size for a mid-major with 6-11 low-post threat Brian Qvale, and has some others besides Johnson who can shoot (G Ryan Staudacher 46% triples; Grizzlies 49% from floor and 40.4 % beyond arc). Points worth a look!
Washington 79 - Marquette 75--This didn't seem to be a likely matchup a month ago, as U-Dub (11) had mostly disappointed and appeared likely to be bound for the NIT or one of the other lesser postseason events. But dynamics began to change in February, when the Huskies finally began to get comfy away from Seattle (they've now won 7 straight away from home, including last week's Pac-10 Tourney) and suddenly discovered a post presence in 6-9 C Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who has consistently been scoring in double digits the past six weeks. With some production having finally emerged on the blocks, it's created a bit more space for slashing 6-7 sr. Quincy Pondexter (20.2 ppg) and has prevented foes from overplaying mercurial 5-9 G Isaiah Thomas (17.2 ppg), from whom most of UW's offense flows.
A nailbiter would certainly be nothing new for Marquette (6), which was involved in one hair-raiser after another down the stretch and owns a valuable crunch-time threat in 6-6 sr. Lazar Hayward (18 ppg). But the smallish Golden Eagles (no starter over 6-6) won't have their normal quickness advantage vs. Lorenzo Romar's speedy troops, and scouts suggest there are plenty of other first-round matchups that would have worked out better for Buzz Williams' crew. Slight regional advantage in San Jose won't hurt Pac-10 Huskies, either.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
THURSDAY, MARCH 18
Southern Miss 58 - LOUISIANA TECH 56--Since these teams appeared to be heading in opposite directions down the stretch, value seems to rest with USM, whose tough defense and patient offense makes it unlikely La Tech can think about extending any margin (much less having a margin to extend). Bulldogs flattened out noticeably after mid-January, as they couldn't post back-to-back SU wins thereafter and ended up dropping 10 of last 15 vs. line. La Tech's star G Kyle Gibson (18.4 ppg) was not the same down the stretch as he was limited by ankle woes, and not sure about status of 6-11 C Magnum Rolle (14 ppg), who rolled an ankle in WAC Tourney loss vs. Utah State. Meanwhile, Larry Eustachy's Eagles enter Ruston on a 13-4 pointspread roll.
FRIDAY, MARCH 19
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY
Syracuse 83 - Vermont 58--Whatever happened to Taylor Coppenrath? Unfortunately for Vermont (16), he's playing in Europe now, as this year's Catamounts don't possess a game-changing presence the likes of the versatile 6-9 Coppenrath, who helped lead UVM to a milestone first-round upset of Syracuse (1) back in 2005. Sure, physical 6-5 Cat sr. F Marqus Blakely (17.4 ppg & 9.4 rpg) is a dominant inside force at his own level. But he'll be "roofed" in the paint by the taller Orange frontliners. And Vermont (just 32% from three-point arc) probably won't be accurate enough from the perimeter to bomb effectively over 'Cuse's 2-3 zone. Even if Jim Boeheim decides to hold out 6-9 sr. F Arinze Onuaku, who's questionable with a quad injury, the overmatched Cats will be hard-pressed to prevent Orange star 6-7 jr. Wes Johnson (16 ppg & 8.4 rpg), 6-7 soph Kris Joseph, and 6-9 jr. Rick Jackson from doing major damage around the bucket, which in turn will create some wide-open looks on the perimeter for dead-eye sr. sharpshooter Andy Rautins. Add in the fact that America East reps are just 5-13 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994, and laying fair price with revenge-minded Syracuse looks like the percentage play.
Gonzaga 70 - Florida State 61--The battle lines couldn't be more clear cut in this matchup. Will the high-octane offense of Gonzaga (8) find any creases in the stingy defense of Florida State (9)? Can the mostly feckless Seminole attack exploit the frequent holes the Bulldogs leave open on the stop end? Long, tall FSU has permitted a paltry 37% FGs this season, tops in the nation. The potent 'Zags counter with a well-orchestrated offense (49% FGs--No. 6 nationally) that can attack inside or out. Even if you believe in the cliché that says "defense wins championships," basketball is ultimately about putting the ball in the bucket. And the Seminoles, who could at least depend on clutch G Toney Douglas in crunch time last season, just don't have any reliable go-to guys on the perimeter this season. As long as 7-0 soph C Robert Sacre & springy 6-7 frosh Elias Harris don't allow FSU's bruising frontcourt to play ping-pong on the offensive glass, the Bulldogs' vastly superior backcourt of 6-5 sr. Matt Bouldin & 6-5 jr. Steven Gray (combined 30 ppg) should hold sway and propel tourney-savvy Mark Few's Gonzaga bunch into the next round.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, NY
West Virginia 78 - Morgan State 67--Though West Virginia (2) riding high after capturing the Big East tourney, still interested in taking lofty number with a capable, battle-tested Morgan State squad (15) eager to make a better showing in its 2nd NCAA appearance following 82-54 smashing vs. Oklahoma LY. The Bears certainly won't be intimidated by the Big East juggernaut after battling Louisville in Freedom Hall (lost by just 9), upsetting Arkansas 97-94 on the road, and hanging much of the way in 79-63 setback at Baylor in preconference (MSU trailed just 39-36 at H). The fast-paced Bears (77 ppg) own a terrific inside-outside tandem in 6-9 soph Kevin Thompson (13 ppg, 12 rpg, 52% FGs) and electric 6-4 sr. G Reggie Holmes (22 ppg, 4 rpg, 36% from arc), who can create his own shot vs. WV's man-to-man. And if Huggins goes to a 1-3-1 zone, aforementioned Holmes, frosh F DeWayne Jackson (MEAC Rookie of Year is loop's top 3-pt. marksman) and sharp-shooting sr. G Troy Smith ( 9 ppg, 39% from arc) capable connecting from long range. Mounties' outstanding 6-7 F Da'Sean Butler (17 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg) and 6-9 soph F Devin Eubanks (12 ppg, 8 rpg) are prime-time performers, but G play has been spotty at times. Plus, WV has had a tendency for slow starts, as Mounties' just 5-7 as DD chalk TY. So, no surprise to see aggressive, well-schooled Bears (2nd in Div. I in FTs attempted!)--under tutelage of crafty HC Todd Bozeman (MEAC Coach of Year for 3 straight seasons)--stay inside roomy number.
Clemson 81 - Missouri 75--Recognize that Clemson (7) hasn't had much success in NCAAs lately, losing to lower-seeded teams each of the past two seasons. But believe veteran, uptempo Clemson (2 jrs. & 2 srs. in starting 5) able to finally get over the hurdle vs. a somewhat vulnerable Missouri team entering the Big Dance in a shooting funk. Mizzou has made just 36% FGs and a horrific 22 % from arc (18 of 80!) in its last 4 games, 3 of which were losses. And Columbia observers report Mizzou hasn't adequately replaced "glue guy" 6-8 F Jason Safford (9 ppg, 5 rpg) down the stretch. Missouri's best recipe for success is forcing TOs with its variety of presses and then scoring quick transition hoops, don't think that M.O. will work so well vs. Clemson's seasoned distributor Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 3 apg), who is playing with greater confidence and aggressiveness down the stretch. Missouri's glaring weakness is lack of quality post players (sans aformentioned Safford). So in a halfcourt game, must give decided advantage to Clemson, which owns one of the better insider scorers in relentless 6-7, 240 F Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 8 rpg), who is nicely complemented by springy 6-8 F Jerai Grant (4 blocked shots, 4 steals past 3 games), the son of former NBA player Horace Grant. And with Clemson's emerging frosh G Noel Johnson (4 of 5 beyond arc in ACC 1st-round game) firing with more confidence, expect Oliver Purnell's squad to outgun Mike Anderson's crew in a potentially high-scoring Tiger vs. Tiger shootout.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL
Temple 72 - Cornell 63--Fascinating matchup here between the teacher and pupil. Temple (5) HC Fran Dunphy, who is going to the NCAAs for the 12th time (9 times at Penn, 3 straight at Temple) has been a mentor for Cornell (12) HC Steve Donahue, who served as an assistant on Dunphy's staff at Penn for 10 years before taking the job at Ithaca. And while it's been trendy to pick the 12th seed upset over the 5th seed in the tourney (a slew of ESPN "experts" have done so already), we prefer to take the surging, more athletic Owls, who are riding a 10-game win streak (8-1-1 vs. spread).
Cornell has suffered DD losses in last two NCAA 1st--rounders. But do expect a more competitive effort from a 27-4 Cornell contingent that dominated the Ivy League, upset Bama 71-67 in Tuscaloosa in its season opener, and gave Kansas a scare in narrow 71-67 loss in Lawrence on Jan. 6. Big Red owns a productive inside-outside attack--featuring straight-shooting G Ryan Wittman (18 ppg), son of former NBA player Randy Wittman, and 7-0 C Jeff Foote (12 ppg, 8 rpg). But Cornell hard-pressed to find any rhythm vs. smothering Temple defense (57 ppg, 38% FGs, 28% from tripleville) highly disruptive both on the interior and on the perimeter. Look for Temple's lock-down defender G Ryan Brooks to shadow Wittman, while Owls' "double-double" machine 6-9 F Lavoy Allen tough provides matchup for Cornell. And in crunch time, we prefer Owls' dazzling 6-4 soph Juan Fernandez 12 ppg, 4 apg, 45% from arc), who thrives in high-pressure games. Moreover, Ivy teams haven't won an NCAA game since 1998, And A-10 squads are 5-0-1 vs. spread in Big Dance since 2005.
Wisconsin 69 - Wofford 54--We don't envision another one-sided affair like Wisconsin's (4) 70-43 bashing vs. Wofford (13) in Madison back in 2007. We do look for the healthy Badgers to cover a reasonable number vs. scrappy, but offensively-containable Terrier squad making its 1st-ever NCAA appearance. Wofford, which is riding a 13-game win streak, did play a challenging preconference slate, hanging tough at Pitt, while defeating Georgia on the road and South Carolina at home. Not bad. But believe, the Terriers will have trouble once again preparing the Badgers' unique swing attack, spearheaded by physical Gs Trevon Hughes (15 ppg, 5 rpg), marksman Jason Bohannon (12 ppg, 4 rpg), and hard-to-guard 6-10 F Jon Leuer (15 ppg, 6 rpg; 39% from arc), who is back to full strength after missing 9 games due to a wrist injury. And Wiscy's backcourt play has improved with maturation of soph G Jordan Taylor (10 ppg, 4 apg).
Defense-pressuring Wofford gets lots of quick, transition hoops off turnovers, but it's highly unlikely Terriers force many miscues vs. disciplined, methodical Badgers (nation-fewest 9 TOs pg!). And doubt unbalanced Wofford finds a groove in its halfcourt offense, with 6-6 F jr. Noah Dahlman (17 ppg, 6 rpg), voted the Southern Conference Player of the Year--the only DD scorer on the roster--struggling vs. Badgers' "packed-in" man-to-man. In addition, Bo Ryan's resilient squad has played well following a losing effort, going 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in that situation. Defensively-stout Wisconsin (56 ppg), which leads the nation in protecting the defensive glass, advances to next round with a not-so-pretty DD win in this anticipated "grinder."
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL
Duke 79 - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 58--Considering Pine Bluff's (16) aforementioned respectable showings vs. a series of accomplished big-time opponents, Golden Lions might not be as helpless as other "16s" against a power foe such as Duke (1). Although Blue Devils enter the Dance having won 12 of last 13 SU, they didn't look overwhelming at the ACC Tourney when failing to cover all three of their games. And considering his rather shallow bench, Coach K is unlikely to burden his overworked Duke starters with far more-challenging assignments just ahead. Blue Devils just one cover in last five Big Dance first-round appearances.
Duke 75 - Winthrop 55--Winthrop's (16) results were a bit mixed vs. top-flight opposition (crushed by 36 at Clemson, but not humiliated in losses vs. Charlotte, Cincinnati, and NC State). And Eagles often struggle mightily on attack end without a go-to scoring threat. But the Big South Tourney champs will have won 12 of their last 15 SU if they reach this assignment, and there's enough evidence to suggest Winthrop might not get completely embarrassed by Duke (1). Coach K not compelled to run up this score and expose his starters to unnecessary wear-and-tear with bigger challenges looming just ahead, and not sure thin Blue Devil bench will be able to extend margin in late going.
California 77 - Louisville 72--It's hard to forecast which Louisville (9) team shows up at the Ford Center, given the Cards' bipolar tendencies that were reflected in a series of back-and-forth efforts that became more pronounced in latter stages of campaign. Although Louisville rates a defensive edge over Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal (8), much prefer sr.-laden Bears' firepower and three-pronged strike force of Gs Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg), Patrick Christopher (16 ppg) & F Theo Robertson (13.8 ppg), the latter's absence having proven costly in early-season play when Bears lost vs. top intersectional foes Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico. This UL edition lacks its usual backcourt star power, with G Edgar Sosa (only 36.7% from floor) prone to go cold, while rugged 6-9 Samardo Samuels' disturbing tendency to get into foul trouble has made Cards a risky investment (except when playing Svracuse, that is). And we don't rate Rick Pitino any sideline edge over respected Cal mentor Mike Montgomery, either.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Ohio State 71 - UC Santa Barbara 61--Ohio State (2) certainly deserves to be a substantial favorite considering its impressive 90-61 plastering of Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney final on Sunday. But the Buckeyes have often been prone to relax a bit, covering only 4 of their last 11 as a double-digit favorite. And, with do-everything G/F Evan Turner (19.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 53.8% FGs) around, the Buckeyes can usually afford to cruise in games until Turner decides it's winnin' time, taking over after previously dishing to 6-5 soph William Buford (14.5 ppg) and trey-bomber Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% three-balls).
But UCSB (15), the regular-season and tourney champs of the lightly-regarded Big West, would appear have a decent chance to remain to competitive vs. its Big Ten foe. Although this is the Gauchos' first NCAA tourney since 2002, respected HC Bob Williams is in his 11th year in Santa Barbara and his 22nd overall. He returned a deep, veteran team this season, augmented by 6-5 Loyola-Marymount transfer Orlando Johnson (18 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40% treys), who quickly became the Player of the Year in the Big West. 6-5 soph James Nunnally (15 ppg. 5.7 rpg) is a valid complement, and 6-2 sr. James Powell (41% triples) is the leading trey shooter in the history of the league. Although outmanned to a degree, Williams' boys have shown they are well schooled to handle any game situation.
Oklahoma State 74 - Georgia Tech 69--Slight nod to fast-closing Oklahoma State (7), which surprisingly developed a new-found chemistry toward the end of the season after PG Ray Penn was felled with a stress fracture in mid-February. 6-6 jr. A-A James Anderson (22.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) was already the established star. But the likes of 5-10 soph shooter Keiton Page (14 ppg last 10 games) began providing more help for Anderson, and burly 6-6 lefty Marshall Moses (8.2 rpg) & 6-8 Kentucky transfer Matt Pilgrim (6.8 rpg) began providing more banging inside. The Cowboys were able to shoot down Kansas 85-77 Feb. 27 in Stillwater.
Yes, Georgia Tech (10) is talented and formidable foe, especially with its height, including 6-9 jr. Gani Lawal (13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and 6-10 future NBA star Derrick Favors (12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg). But the rest of the coach Paul Hewitt's team has lacked consistency, partly due to youth. And the Yellow Jackets connect on only 64% from the FT stripe compared with OSU's 71.5%. It must be noted that both teams have struggled on the road. Ga. Tech lost 8 of its last 9 away prior to its 3-1 run in the ACC tourney. OSU was 4-8 its last 12 on the road vs. quality opposition.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Pittsburgh 74 - Oakland 59--We're not exactly sure what to make of Oakland (14). On the one hand, the Golden Grizzlies (11 straight victories) enter the tourney with plenty of momentum after laying waste to the Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent Conference). On the other hand, while we credit head coach Greg Kampe (25 years at the helm!) for his ambitious non-conference scheduling, it's hard not to notice that Oakland was blasted by 30+ points at Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State and Syracuse. Sure, Pittsburgh (3) might be a cut below at least three of that mighty quartet. But the Grizz also suffered decisive double-digit losses at Wisconsin and at a very sub-par Oregon edition earlier in the campaign. The confident Kampe says he believes the Sweet 16 is a realistic goal for his team, but Oakland's inability to step up vs. better competition makes us doubt they can get by a Panther side forged tough in the crucible of the rugged Big East. Pitt much more conscientious on the defensive end than the permissive Grizzlies, and clever mentor Jamie Dixon will make sure Oakland has tough time getting the ball to star 6-11 jr. C Keith Benson in the post.
Xavier 60 - Minnesota 55--Tough call, if mostly because Minnesota (11) head coach Tubby Smith has so much more NCAA tournament experience (including a national championship) than rookie counterpart Chris Mack of Xavier (6). Still, the Musketeers hold most of the other edges in this matchup. Credit the Golden Gophers for recovering from the loss of PG Al Nolen to academic problems midway through the season. With soph Devoe Joseph gradually growing accustomed to his role as main playmaker, Minnesota managed to eke out an invitation to the "Big Dance" on the strength of its foray all the way to finals of the Big 10 tournament, where the Gophers were smashed by Ohio State 90-61. We consider Xavier's credentials much stronger, as it tied for the regular-season title of the underrated Atlantic 10. And there seems to be little question that the Musketeers possess the superior offense, led by the inside-out duo of rugged 6-9 sr. Jason Love (11.9 ppg & 8.6 rpg) and smooth soph Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford (19.7 ppg). Plus, don't underestimate the experience Mack gained as an assistant under former boss Sean Miller, who took Xavier (13-4-2 vs. the spread in the NCAA tourney since 2000!) to the Sweet 16 last year and all the way to the Elite Eight the prior season.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Spokane Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA
New Mexico State 69 - Michigan State 71--Although Michigan State (5) might have the edge with its half-court style and tournament experience (Spartans are 15-8 as a favorite in the Big Dance since 1999), few in East Lansing would say this is a vintage MSU team. The Spartans were only 5-5 SU their last 10 games, with key PG Kalin Lucas slowed by a balky ankle and G Chris Allen recently suspended (but now expected back for "not being a good teammate." Nonetheless, expect Tom Izzo's crew to play resolutely after their quarterfinal loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tourney.
However, MSU might find New Mexico State (12) a difficult animal to snare, as the Aggies and their five double-digit scorers are brimming with confidence after their road upset of Utah State to win the WAC tourney. Former Rick Pitino assistant Marvin Menzies has a pair of outside bombers in 6-5 jr. Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg) and 6-1 sr. Jonathan Gibson, while 6-8 Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg) can score inside and 6-11 Hamidu Rahman patrols the paint. For sure, N.M. State might shoot itself out of the game. But the Aggies' frenetic style might be disconcerting for a Spartan team looking to find its best stride.
Maryland 82 - Houston 78--Maryland (4) is disappointed by its quarterfinal exit vs. Ga. Tech in the ACC tourney, especially since no team has ever lost the first game of its conference tournament and then gone on to win the NCAA title. And the Terrapins had been full of enthuSIAsm afer knocking off Duke late in the campaign to earn a share of first place in the ACC regular season. Led by clutch G Greivis Vasquez (19.5 ppg, 6 apg), Maryland has balance (four players in DDs), scoring power (79 ppg), and defense (38.8% FGs) to make a deep run in this event.
And make no mistake, Houston (13) is a "hully-gully" team that will fire away, led by the nation's leading scorer, Aubrey Coleman (25.6 ppg, plus 2.7 spg!) and soph G Kelvin Lewis, who makes nearly three treys pg. The Cougars were only 7-9 in the C-USA in the regular season and needed to win 4 games in 4 days to capture the tourney title, and they are still only 19-15 overall. But HC Tom Penders (previously has taken Rhode Island, Texas & George Washington to the NCAAs) attributes the choppy regular season partly to a long-running string of injuries. However, Penders now says UH is healthier, 10-deep and plenty versatile, as he used a 4-G lineup to come from behind to subdue UTEP in the C-USA title game. With the early pointspread near DDs, prefer to give "hully-gully" a chance vs. Terp team that also plays uptempo.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA
Utah State 65 - Texas A&M 61--After sweating out an at-large bid following an unexpected loss in WAC finale to New Mexico State that ended a 17-game win streak, expect Utah State (12) to reward the Selection Committee's faith. Regional observers believe "method" teams such as A&M (5) play into the hands of respected tactician Stew Morrill, whose varied Utag defensive looks are more vulnerable to the sort of street ball that NMSU resorted to in Reno. Although A&M G Donald Sloan (17.9 ppg) a respected go-to threat in clutch, Marc Turgeon's troops not likely to go rogue, and frontline scrappers such as 6-9 C Bryan Davis & 6-8 F David Loubeau not likely to intimidate Morrill's physical low-post components Tai Wesley & Nate Bendall. Besides Morrill's ever-changing defensive looks, USU does a lot of things well (2nd nationally in 3-point shooting at 42%, 7th in FTs at 76.3%). Not comfy laying points with A&M squad that has shortcomings at charity stripe (just 65%) and TO problems...hardly a positive vs. a Morrill-coached team.
Siena 66 - Purdue 62--Upset alert! Or is it? After all, veteran Metro-Atlantic champ Siena (13) is a known quantity by now, and it returns much the same team that defeated Vanderbilt and Ohio State, respectively, in the last two Big Dance first rounds. Meanwhile, Purdue (4) isn't as bad as it looked when getting routed in the Big Ten Tourney by Minnesota, but obviously isn't taking a lot of momentum to the Dance after multi-dimensional jr. F Robbie Hummel (15.7 ppg; a poor man's Larry Bird?) went down with late-season knee injury. And the Boilermakers got another scare in the Big Ten Tourney when energizer-bunny G Lewis Jackson re-aggravated a foot injury that kept him out the first half of the season (though he's expected to be ready by Friday). Nonetheless, Hummel's absence has robbed Purdue of its most-unique dimension, and Fran McCaffery's well-coordinated and versatile Saints attack is able to pound in paint with rugged PF Alex Franklin (16.3 ppg), strike from the wings with 6-6 matchup nightmare Edwin Ubiles (14.3 ppg), bomb from perimeter with 3-point threat Clarence Jackson (13.6 ppg), and probe effectively with sr. PG Ronald Moore. Is the wrong team favored?
COLLEGE HOOPS KEY RELEASES
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RICHMOND by 10 over Saint Mary's (Thursday, March 18 Day)
GONZAGA by 9 over Florida State (Friday, March 19)
NEW MEXICO STATE Plus over Michigan State (Fri., March 19))
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
NCAA Play-in game at UD Dayton Arena, Dayton, Ohio
Arkansas Pine-Bluff 55 - Winthrop 53--While popular opinion seems to dismiss Big Dance virgin and SWAC Tourney champ Pine Bluff because of its less-than-impressive 0-11 SU break from the gate this season, a quick glimpse at the Golden Lions' early schedule might cast a different light on things. Pine Bluff ran a gauntlet on the road, losing at Arizona State, Michigan, Akron, UTEP, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, and Kansas State without getting embarrassed at any of those tough stops (maybe Seth Greenberg ought to consult APB HC George Ivory on future non-conference scheduling). Winthrop is a familiar NCAA participant, but don't compare this Eagle team to some of former HC Gregg Marshall's recent accomplished editions, as the current Winthrop lacks go-to scoring threats (soph G Reggie Middleton the only DD scorer at 10.3 ppg), hit on only 38% of its FGs, and was only the 3rd seed in the recent Big South Tourney that it won over Coastal Carolina in the finale. Pine Bluff starts an all-sr. lineup, and G Allen Smith dominated in the SWAC Tourney when the Golden Lions' aggressive "D" was on display in the finale, holding Texas Southern to only 38 points. APB's ballhandling and perimeter-shooting flaws are countered by its board-crashing strength which can help vs. this beatable Big South foe.
NIT
CONNECTICUT 70 - Northeastern 67--Bitterly disappointing campaign for NCAA tourney regular Connecticut and venerable mentor Jim Calhoun, who took Huskies all the way to Final Four just last year. UConn dropped its last four games and is just 6-12 straight up since early January. That tailspin largely due to sub-par backcourt play from scattershot sr. Jerome Dyson (just 29% from three-point arc) and careless soph Kemba Walker. Enter pesky Northeastern, where Calhoun cut his coaching teeth back in the '70s. Sure, smallish NU (also Huskies) might get pounded on glass by bigger host. But unless Dyson & Walker suddenly get their act together, UConn fortunate just to escape with victory over veteran dog that has plenty of bite.
SOUTH FLORIDA 69 - North Carolina State 60--Not sure how much N.C. State has left in the tank after its impressive showing in the recent ACC tourney, where the Wolfpack surprisingly made it the semifinals while covering all three of its games. South Florida a MAJOR bankroll buddy this season, going 20-10-1 vs. spread, including 11-4-1 over its last 15 games. Like the Bulls more as a dog than a favorite, but they own (by far) the top perimeter gun on the floor in NBA-caliber jr. G Dominique Jones (21.3 ppg). And USF also has enough size with 6-10 Augustus Gilchrist, who's back near 100% after missing nearly two months with a foot injury, and 6-11 jr. Jarrid Famous to battle State top dog Tracy Smith (16.9 ppg & 7.5 rpg) to a standstill in the paint.
UAB 68 - Coastal Carolina 63--Every year there are several squads that feel they deserved an at-large invitation to the "Big Dance," only to be passed over by the tournament committee and relegated to the NIT. UAB falls squarely into that category, and it's far from guaranteed the bummed-out Blazers will be motivated by the snub, as just as many jilted teams end up playing as if they're "just unhappy to be here." While Birmingham scouts assure the host would love to make a statement in this NIT opener, that might be easier said than done vs. Big South regular season champ Coastal Carolina. The veteran Chanticleers have 28 victories and more than enough firepower (75 ppg on 48% FGs) to stay close to low-octane UAB.
SETON HALL 87 - Texas Tech 85--Interested in taking generous points in this anticipated shootout. Seton Hall (81 ppg--No. 8 in the nation) can light the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but the Pirates usually give (75 ppg) nearly as much they get, and frequently more. Same for Texas Tech. The Hall has bombs-away 6-5 jr. G Jeremy Hazell (20.9 ppg), one of the top scorers in the Big East, and savvy sr. PG Eugene Harvey, a four-year starter. Red Raiders counter with slashing 6-6 jr. Mike Singletary (14.7 ppg & 6.8 rpg), accurate sr. G Nick Okorie (11 ppg, 41% from three-point arc), and jr. PG John Roberson (14.7 ppg, 41% treys, 5.6 apg), one of the top playmakers in the Big XII. Pirates just 8-16-1 vs. the spread on the season.
William & Mary 65 - NORTH CAROLINA 64--Connecticut and North Carolina!?!?! Sure, taking pleasure in the misfortune of others (schadenfruede) is not an admirable quality. But who can blame the NIT for being delighted at landing two of the nation's most storied programs in the same year? If veteran William & Mary is good enough to claim victories at Wake Forest & Maryland, two ACC teams that earned NCAA invitations, what's to stop the Tribe from taking down the discombobulated defending national champion Tar Heels, who, until late February, were in danger of finishing sub-.500 and not even making this tournament? Even if UNC is able to avoid an embarrassing upset, well-coached W&M (13-2 as a dog this year!) has an excellent chance to stay inside substantial impost.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 78 - Jackson State 60--We have little doubt that Mississippi State, if properly focused & motivated, can pretty much name the margin against Jackson State. After all, the Tigers absorbed some terrible beatings during pre-conference play, including a 92-39 (!!!) drubbing at Tulsa. Still, the Bulldogs can't help but be a little down in the dumps after a brutal Sunday that saw them lose the SEC title game to Kentucky by single point in overtime, then be passed over for an at-large bid to the NCAA tourney despite 23 victories. Little Jackson State will be jacked up for a chance to take on one of Mississippi's big boys. And the Tigers did dominate the SWAC during the regular season before they were taken out in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney by Grambling and some highly-suspect refereeing (58 fouls were whistled in that game!).
ARIZONA STATE 67 - Jacksonville 46--Even coaches familiar with Herb Sendek's ASU defense complain about how much time it takes to adjust their offenses to the Sun Devils' shifting matchup zone. So, don't like the Dolphins' chances when traveling west, then playing on an unfamiliar court. Jacksonville (42% FGs) is not a dynamic offense to begin with. So, if ASU shooters Ty Abbott and Latvian Ricard Kuksiks can get their chins off their chests after missing out on the NCAA tourney, Sun Devils should pull away.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
TUESDAY, MARCH 16
Virginia Commonwealth 81 - GEORGE WASHINGTON 73--Compelling regional matchup between nearby foes that remarkably haven't faced one another since 1979. We expect racehorse GWU will take the bait from VCU and engage the Rams in a fullcourt game, which the CAA rep will certainly welcome. And though Karl Hobbs' A-10 team is capable of playing uptempo all night with a bench that goes 11 deep, transition ball plays into the strength of VCU, whose "bigs" Larry Sanders and Jamie Skeen can effectively get up and down the court, while long-range bombers Joey Rodriguez and Bradford Burgess should get plenty of clear looks from the perimeter. GWU's firepower quotient reduced a bit in recent weeks as 6-5 Rip Hamilton-like frosh G Lasan Kromah (just 6.8 ppg last 4 after scoring at least 22 in previous three) began to slump.
SAINT LOUIS 58 - Indiana State 54--With eleven days off since its last game at "Arch Madness" at this St. Louis site, ISU at least better rested than it has been since November, before injury woes began to take their toll. And high-scorer G Harry Marshall (who led MVC scorers with 16.2 ppg in league action) is probably out again after re-aggravating a foot injury that caused him to miss most of February action. But the late-season absences of Marshall and fellow backcourt ace Dwayne Lathan (who has since returned to action) allowed HC Kevin McKenna to blood some frosh who stepped admirably into the breach when the Sycamores covered a lot of games in February. Relying as Sycamores do from perimeter is risky business vs. SLU's nation-best 3-point defense (Bills allow just 27.1% beyond arc). But Rick Majerus' teams played most of 'em close (8 of last 11 wins by 5 or fewer), and Bills will have trouble extending margin in expected half-court chess match.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNEY (CIT)
TUESDAY, MARCH 16
Fairfield 71 - GEORGE MASON 68--CAA observers remain a bit puzzled by Jim Larranaga's GMU squad that was still making "un-Larranaga-like" mistakes in backcourt as season progressed and ended up with subpar 2-7 chalk mark at its usual Patriot Center fortress. Such uncharacteristic lack of hoop smarts could come back to bite Patriots again vs. scrappy Fairfield bunch that earned some rave reviews down stretch from Metro-Atlantic observers and rallied from 15-point halftime deficit to force league power Siena into OT in conference tourney finale. Emergence of MAAC Rookie of Year frosh G Derek Needham (16.3 ppg) to team with post threat Anthony Johnson (15.7 ppg) gives Stags the sort of 1-2 punch they need to prevail at Fairfax.
MARSHALL 69 - Western Carolina 64--Potentially troubling fundamental matchup in this one for WCU against Marshall's 7-0 frosh C Hassan Whiteside, who along with fellow Herd frontline mate 6-9 Tyler Wilkerson could pose some problems for the smaller Catamounts. And 23-9 Marshall might be a bit angry at being passed over by the NIT as well as looking to unleash some frustrations after C-USA Tourney meltdown vs. Tulsa. But WCU capable of playing Herd within single digits, as Catamounts are well-balanced (top 6 score between (8.4-11.9 ppg), own a "ball thief deluxe" in SoCon steals leader Brandon Waginger, were good enough to win at Louisville in mid-December, and turned around February pointspread slide with competitive BracketBusters effort at Kent State.
CREIGHTON 78 - South Dakota 68--This is a "Gold Sheet debut" of sorts for South Dakota, which qualified for the CIT after Coyotes won last week's Great West Conference Tournament, a collection of otherwise wayward I-A Independents who convened at Utah Valley's campus in Orem, UT for a chance to compete in this event. South Dakota's 3-G offense is pretty well-balanced (three top scorers, led by F Tyler Cain, scoring between 13.1-14.7 ppg), and Coyotes have some size in 6-11 C Steve Smith. Note that Creighton will play this one at the old Omaha Civic Auditorium (new Qwest Center has been booked this week), and this has been a trying season for Dana Altman, with chemistry issues exacerbated by suspension of G P'Allen Stinnett, and uncharacteristic inconsistency beyond arc (only 32%). Class edge to Bluejays, but not sure we want to lay in the mid-teens with disappointed hosts.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
NIT
DAYTON 61 - Illinois State 59--We've waited long enough for Dayton to begin resembling last year's NCAA second-round team. Maybe it's just not going to happen, as six losses in the Flyers' last nine games seems to confirm. Dayton simply didn't adapt well when foes were able to slow the pace and force Flyers into half-court basketball, which is Illinois State's strength. Redbirds (solid 5-2 as visiting dog this year) have enough weapons in G Osiris Eldridge (15.7 ppg) and F Dinma Odiakosa (12.9 ppg & 61% from floor) to find holes in Dayton's defense and keep this one very interesting.
CINCINNATI 64 - Weber State 57--Although Weber State still probably having nightmares about Big Sky Tourney final nightmare and Montana G Anthony Johnson (who scored 42!), in particular after the Wildcats blew a 22-point lead vs. Grizzlies, the Big Sky regular-season champs from Ogden are not without enough credentials to warrant a recommendation against an overvalued Cincy squad that was a constant moneyburner at Fifth Third Arena (just 1-9 vs. line!) all season. WSU has some beef in paint in rugged 240-lb. C Steve Panos to bang with Bearcats on blocks, while presence of electric G Damian Lillard (19.7 ppg) should prevent Wildcats from going in cold stretches that could allow Cincy to stretch margin.
Northwestern 69 - RHODE ISLAND 65--Not particularly excited to lay points with Rhode Island bunch that once again ran out of gas as March approached and played itself of the NCAA bubble once again. And since Rams covered only 3 of their last 11 as chalk and dropped 6 of last 10 SU, we're not even sure Jim Baron's squad survives against combative Northwestern bunch that won't flinch at a trip to Kingston after a full season of grueling Big Ten wars. Cats squadron of 3-point bombers led by F John Shurna (18.3 ppg) good enough to help Bill Carmody post a 6-2 visiting dog mark this season. NU's conscientious defense on the perimeter will come in handy vs. URI, which has struggled with its shooting down the stretch and is coming off a season-worst 27% FG shooting performance in A-10 Tourney semifinal loss vs. Temple.
VIRGINIA TECH 78 - Quinnipiac 58--Dick Vitale's support or not, we're not completely comfy with potentially depressed VPI squad that was cruelly denied another Big Dance bid at the last minute and has been banished once more to the NIT, where Hokies didn't seem all that excited to be in a similar spot last season (needed 2 OTs to get past Duquesne in Blacksburg before getting whipped by Baylor). But hard as we try, we're not finding a lot of evidence to suggest the Pollsters, er, Bobcats, from Quinnipiac can step up and compete vs. an ACC foes, with sketchy evidence from December losses vs. UMass and Rhode Island (not to mention losses at Lehigh and Navy) making us wonder if the "Q" can deal with Seth Greenberg's athletes. Slight preference for VPI's ACC pedigree.
KENT STATE 80 - Tulsa 70--This isn't where Kent State expected to be this week, as Golden Flashes (top seed in MAC Tourney) were convinced they were going to the Big Dance instead. But after uncharacteristic showing in MAC semis vs. Ohio (when Golden Flashes shot just 25% from floor en route to 16-point halftime deficit), expect Geno Ford's squad to bounce back at the MAC Center, where it has won 8 in a row. Flashes' defensive backcourt stoppers Chris Singletary & Rodriquez Sherman are good matchups vs. Tulsa Gs Ben Uzoh & Justin Hurtt, and Golden Hurricane's 7-0 sr. C Jerome Jordan not always a dominant force in paint. Too many lackluster efforts down stretch suggest some possible chemistry problems for Tulsa, which enters having lost 7 of last 12 (loss margin 13 ppg those defeats).
WICHITA STATE 72 - Nevada 69--Are we back at the BracketBusters? Nevada familiar with trips to the Missouri Valley after its narrow loss at Missouri State in late February, and fundamentals suggest Wolf Pack could be a pretty interesting dog at the Roundhouse. Nevada's go-to scorers F Luke Babbitt (22.1 ppg) and G Armon Johnson (15.8 ppg) certainly capable of keeping Wolf Pack close, although David Carter could be in some difficulty if foul trouble exposes his then bench (Pack really only goes 6-deep these days). Wichita encouraged that C Garrett Stutz & G Demetric Williams emerged as options on attack end in recent weeks, but we'd rather not trust Shockers, who have covered just 3 of last 10 on board.
OLE MISS 77 - Troy 67--Troy not likely to be intimidated by this trip to Oxford after visiting SEC venues Florida and Auburn (where it beat the Tigers) in pre-league play, not to mention other road trips to UAB, Marshall, and Houston. And despite sacrificing a bit of quickness to Ole Miss star Gs Chris Warren, Terrico White and their friends, Trojans' savvy, all-sr. starting lineup paced by All-Sun Belt Gs Brandon Hazzard (16.6 ppg) & Richard Delk (12.2 ppg) unlikely to get embarrassed by Rebs' G-heavy lineup. There's enough firepower in Troy lineup (scoring a Belt-best 75.1 ppg) to stay within earshot
MEMPHIS 66 - St. John's 64--Potentially dicey psychological spot for St. John's, with some of the Big Apple press corps reporting that HC Norm Roberts is already on his way out the door. But with no official announcement just yet, we'll assume Red Storm will keep playing as hard for its coach as it did down the stretch when winning on the road at Notre Dame and South Florida, rallying from a big deficit to win in 3 OTs at DePaul, then punishing UConn and taking Marquette to the limit in Big East Tourney. Johnnies' 6-6 jr. D.J. Kennedy (15 ppg) emerging as go-to threat, and style clash would seem to favor Red Storm, which has the snippy backcourt defenders to pester Memphis G Elliot Williams and physical enough in paint to knock undersized Tiger frontline off its pins in a preferred half-court tempo.
Illinois 74 - STONY BROOK 61--So much for Cirque du Soleil, which was booked this week at the Assembly Hall in Champaign-Urbana and forced Illinois (which was thinking it might be bound for NCAA sub-regional action this week) to instead trek to the far reaches of Long Island for this NIT opener at America East reg,-season champ Stony Brook, which was also thinking it would be Big Dance-bound before losing in conference tourney vs. Boston U. Not terribly comfy laying points on road anywhere with bipolar Fighting Illini. But if focused at all, Demetri McCamey & Co. should take care of business vs. Seawolves, who were hardly tested vs. significant opposition in pre-league slate (lost by 8 at St. John's in one major test, but were also creamed by 16 at woeful Fordham). Stony Brook's smallish 3-G lineup likely to be eventually overpowered by a legit Big Ten frontline featuring 7-1 Mike Tisdale and 6-9 Mike Davis.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT
PRINCETON 67 - Duquesne 58--Fascinating style clash between deliberate, defense-solid Princeton and uptempo Duquesne bunch that often decides to take off possessions on stop end. And it's for that reason that we don't like the fundamentals in this matchup for Dukes, who have not demonstrated the defensive discipline necessary to cope with Tigers' well-orchestrated pass-and-screen motion offense. Expect Ivy rep to eventually find some cracks in Duquesne "D" as shot clock winds down and either get familiar back-door cuts or clear looks from perimeter. Dukes' HC Ron Everhart not happy with the way season ended for his troops (7-11 SU last 11) and suggested he'll use this game as an early audition for starting jobs...in 2010-11 campaign.
AKRON 67 - UW Green Bay 64--Not sure how enthused host Akron is going to be after coming so close to second straight Big Dance trip before being cruelly denied in OT by Ohio in Saturday night's MAC tourney finale. And if Zips don't bring their "A" game, well-rested UWGB (almost two weeks off since Horizon Tourney) capable of making this a 40-minute battle. Recent time off probably helped Fighting Phoenix G Troy Cotton, who seemed to run out of gas after January (no 20-point games since) and was only 2 for 9 from tripleville in Horizon Tourney), And note that Green Bay won a hefty 10 games away from Resch Center this season. After losing at home in the first round of this event vs. Vermont last March, expect Fighting Phoenix to at least go down swinging.
HOFSTRA 74 - Iupui 73--Hofstra owns premier go-to component on floor in explosive G Charles Jenkins (20.6 ppg), but Pride didn't always get other elements consistently involved on attack and was not a terribly reliable proposition when laying points on Long Island (just 4-7 in role). Remember, IUPUI owns more wins (24) than any team in this event and held its own (and then some) against some name opposition in on-conference play (comfortably beat Hofstra's CAA colleague Georgia State, won at Drake, and dumped Duquesne, was competitive at Kansas State and Notre Dame), has plenty of firepower (74.7 ppg, behind only Oakland in Summit), and has an explosive inside-outside scoring combo in 6-7 F Robert Glenn (19.5 ppg & 59% from floor) & 6-6 swingman Alex Young (18.4 ppg and comfy floating beyond arc).
College of Charleston 74 - EASTERN KENTUCKY 68--The Richmond venue provides an opportunity for EKU, which only lost twice at McBrayer Arena this season compared with dropping 10 of 14 SU chances on the road. But Colonels walk a pretty thin line against accomplished foes such as Bobby Cremins' Charleston, with EKU's lack of post presence and almost complete reliance on perimeter a recipe for problems against well-balanced opposition. Cremins' dynamic 3-G attack featuring Andrew Goudelock (19.4 ppg), Donavan Monroe (12.4 ppg) & Tony White, Jr. (11.8 ppg) all played in this event LY when Cougars advanced to second round and were good enough to help CC actually beat a few noteworthy foes (including North Carolina & George Mason, the latter on the road).
MOREHEAD STATE 70 - Colorado State 64--CSU not likely intimidated by Morehead venue after a season dealing with various Mountain West snakepits at places like Provo and Albuquerque. But fact is that noisy Ellis T. Johnson Arena is a pretty difficult place to succeed as well, and host Eagles enter on 13-game home win streak that includes a shocker against OVC champ Murray State on Feb. 25. Eagles' go-to threat 6-8 Kenneth Faried (16.8 ppg) might neutralize CSU's Andy Ogide on blocks, while Ram Gs Dorian Green & Adam Nigon were blowing very hot and cold beyond arc down stretch.
OREGON STATE 68 - Boston U 65--Knee-jerk reaction might simply be to back Craig Robinson's Oregon State squad that pleased the White House and shocked the college hoops world by actually winning this event a year ago. But Beavers had a couple of close calls along the way, and their patient style makes us a bit uncomfortable laying substantial points vs. scrappy Boston U bunch that made strides under first-year HC Pat Chambers, who arrived in Beantown from Jay Wright's Villanova staff. Terriers caught fire down stretch when winning their last six before dropping America East tourney title game vs. Vermont and competed well vs. top-flight opposition, playing Kansas State tough and beating Indiana at Puerto Rico in November. BU's 6-5 jr. swingman John Holland (19 ppg) and 6-2 sr. G Corey Lowe (15.1 ppg) provide enough pop to keep Terriers close.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
WEDNESDAY, MARCH 17
APPALACHIAN STATE 71 - Harvard 62--Tommy Amaker's Harvard hotshots might not get a very warm welcome in Boone, where the Smoky Mountain folk don't often get to razz a bunch of Yankee city slickers. And since the Crimson proved a pretender in the Ivy race when falling short vs. their only challenging foes Cornell & Princeton, we doubt Amaker has enough tricks up his sleeve to take down combative App State, whose dramatic rally vs. Wofford in the SoCon finale fell just short. Mountaineers' explosive G combo of Donald Sims (20 ppg) & Kellen Brand (11.5 ppg) will enjoy a chance to rough up Harvard counterpart Jeremy Lin, and note that Buzz Peterson's bunch had won 9 of its last 10 in tough SoCon before that narrow loss in conference tourney finale at Charlotte.
MISSOURI STATE 73 - Middle Tennessee State 60--MTSU was able to hang around vs. a couple of notable non-conference foes (played Marshall and UAB close), but also lacked the necessary offensive dimensions to beat any of them. And Blue Raiders (no starters taller than 6-7) aren't too big, either, which could be problematic vs. bigger MSU and 6-9 post threat Will Creekmore. Bears' 6-6 F Kyle Weems a devilish matchup (too big for Gs and too quick for most Fs), and remember that coach Cuonzo Martin's team got off to a fast 12-1 SU start this season (beating the likes of Auburn, Tulsa, and Saint Louis) against MTSU-level opposition.
Portland 68 - NORTHERN COLORADO 63--If they played this one back in December or the first half of January, we would have likely backed Greeley-based UNC, which was beating some representative opposition in the first half of the season (Hawaii, Air Force, Colorado State, Montana, San Jose State, TCU, and a 1-point loss at Oklahoma) before the wheels started to fall of at midseason and key G Devon Beitzel (14.3 ppg; part of a potent backcourt combo with waterbug 5-9 sr. Will Figures) went down with a foot injury in mid-February, contributing to 2-11 pointspread slide to end campaign. Bears also a bit undersized, which should allow Portland's 6-10 sr. post threat Robin Smeulders (12.6 ppg) some opportunities in paint. And minus Beitzel, UNC hard-pressed to trade points with pilots three-pronged G attack of Nik Raivio (14.1 ppg), T.J. Campbell (13.5 ppg), and 3-point ace Jared Stohl (11.5 ppg & 48% triples).
Pacific 75 - LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT 69--At its best, LMU certainly capable of taking down UOP. But for recommendation purposes, Tigers' overall consistency a bit more comforting, not to mention fact that shrewd HC Bob Thomason has won a lot of games in postseasons past, including advancing to semifinals of this event LY. Big edge on stop end to the Tigers, as Lions often lose defensive focus, reflected in WCC-worst 76 ppg allowed and 39% beyond arc. Meanwhile, UOP boasts Big West's top defense, so as long as Thomason's perimeter weapons Gs Demetrece Young & Terrell Smith & F Pat Eveland don't combine to go 5 for 25 from floor (and 2 of 15 beyond arc) as they did in Big West semifinal loss vs. Long Beach, Tigers can advance.
THURSDAY, MARCH 18
NCAA TOURNAMENT
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI
Georgetown 70 - Ohio 63--Kudos to Ohio (14) coach John Groce, who in just his second year with the Bobcats, led his team from a 7-9 regular season TY in the MAC to the conference title. Groce, who spent the previous four years under Thad Matta at Ohio State, has done an excellent job boosting the Ohio program, particularly by bringing in 6-2 Indiana transfer Armon Bassett (16.9 ppg) and 5-11 frosh dynamo D.J. Cooper (13 ppg), who also leads the team in assists (5.9 pg) and is one of the national leaders in steals (2.7 pg). But those two have plenty of help, with three other players averaging 9.7 ppg or more, not to mention 6-10 Dutch space-eater Kenneth van Kempen. The Bobcats led the MAC in scoring, hit their FTs (72%), and guarded the arc, allowing only 31% treys.
Yes, Georgetown (3) is likely to advance, thanks to its Big East pedigree, 6-11 C Greg Monroe (16 ppg, 9.5 rpg; arguably the best overall big man in the nation TY), marksman Austin Freeman (16.7 ppg; 45% treys), and rising PG Chris Wright (15 ppg, 4.1 apg). But the Hoyas couldn't be blamed for seeking to take Ohio in stride after four games in four days in last week's Big East tourney. The Bobcats' appear to have enough offense and muscle to hang tight.
Tennessee 63 - San Diego State 56--San Diego State (11) pulled one of the surprises of the conference tourney season, upsetting top-seeded New Mexico and then host-team UNLV to lock up the automatic berth from the Mountain West. Many in the eastern half of the nation might not be familiar with Steve Fisher's fast-arriving Aztecs, featuring 6-7 MWC Freshman of the Year Kawhi Leonard (12.8 ppg, 9.9 rpg) and 6-9 juco Malcom Thomas (11.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg; second team MWC), plus quick PG D.J. Gray. 6-8 sr. Billy White (11.2, 4.4) is the veteran who holds things together on a team that lost in LY's NIT semifinals. Unlike many other Fisher teams, SDS subdues foes with smothering defense (40.5% FGs). And like most Fisher teams, the rebounding is strong (+6 pg).
Tennessee (6), meanwhile, is coming off the worst loss of the Bruce Pearl era, a 74-45 waxing administered by revenge-minded Kentucky in the SEC semifinals. And the Volunteers had to fight through a disjointed campaign that was disrupted by midseason arrests and suspensions. But UT was playing well (7-1 SU, including that victory over UK) until that SEC tourney loss. And Pearl's players own much more Big Dance experience than the newly-jelled Aztecs. At a small pointspread, favor Wayne Chism, Scotty Hopson & crew, especially with a full week to think about that 29-point whuppin' applied by Kentucky.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Dunkin Donuts Center, Providence, RI
Villanova 70 - Robert Morris 55--We don't think Nova (2) is at much upset risk against the Pittsburgh Airport's home team, Robert Morris (15), back in the Dance again after covering in the first round vs. eventual finalist Michigan State LY and an impressive winner of the Northeast Tourney finale at Quinnipiac's snakepit home court. Since Jay Wright's Wildcats seemed to lose a bit of traction in the final month, losing 5 of last 7 SU and dropping 8 of last 11 vs. line (albeit vs. stout Big East opposition), not sure we want to lay such a hefty price, especially when considering how a more in-sync Nova struggled in opening-round action LY vs. American U.
Respect Scottie Reynolds and the accomplished Cat backcourt, but Colonials snippy 3-G lineup plays non-stop defense (allowed just 2 of last 17 foes to crack 70-point barrier while permitting only 40% FGs and 32% treys TY) under former Pitt assistant Mike Rice, and we don't trust Wright's new-look, bigger frontcourt to take advantage of size edge after its inconsistent play over the last half of the campaign. RM's electric true frosh G Karon Abraham (44% triples) emerged as an excellent complement to sr.-laden Colonial lineup and was a dominant factor in recent conference tourney.
Richmond 70 - Saint Mary's 60--It's too bad these two quality mid-majors have to run into each other in the first round, as both were on our "go-with" list heading into the Dance. But if forced to choose, we'd rather trust Pete Carril-disciple Chris Mooney's intriguing Richmond (7) bunch that excelled in a bit tougher A-10 race than Saint Mary's (10) conference slate in the WCC. Not to discount Gaels, who own a legit "big" in 6-11 sr. Omar Samhan (21.5 ppg) and plenty of dagger-throwers from the perimeter, including underrated jr. G Mickey McConnell (51% treys). But Mooney's modified, high-tempo Princeton offense (which plays a few speeds faster than Carril's old teams) is difficult to prepare for on short notice, and longtime backcourt pairing of Kevin Anderson (17.8 pg) & David Gonzalvez (14.3 ppg) arguably one of the best G combos in Dance. If Spiders' 6-9 Darrius Garrett (who blocked 14 shots in a game earlier TY vs. UMass) can keep Samhan from dictating matters on blocks, Richmond should advance.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the New Orleans Arena in New Orleans, LA
Kentucky 92 - East Tennnessee State 64--While East Tennessee State (16) gave Pitt a scare in 72-62 1st round loss in the NCAAs year ago, the top two scorers graduated from that squad. And though overchieving ETS (5th seed in Atlantic Sun tourney) managed to overcome a season-ending injury to the leading returning scorer Mike Smith in December and to end the regular season on 6-game win streak, doubt that Murray Bartow's squad owns the firepower to hang around vs. powerful Kentucky (1).
Smallish ETS (tallest starter is 6-8 soph F ISIAh Brown), whose leading rebounder is 6-4 F Tommy Hubbard (14 ppg, 8 rpg), figures to get destroyed in the paint by the taller, stronger, deeper Wildcat forecourt (+9 rpg), spearheaded by future lottery pick 6-11 frosh F DeMarcus Cousins (16 ppg, 10 rpg, 2 bpg) and complementary 6-9 F Patrick Patterson (15 ppg, 8 rpg). And expect UK's SEC Player of the Year 6-4 PG John Wall (17 ppg, 6 apg, 4 rpg; 23 assists in SEC tourney) to easily break down Bucs' trapping 2-3 zone, when the fastbreak isn't available. On the other end, ETS lacks the consistent outside shooting (only 31% from arc) to stay competitive with a focused Wildcat squad that won't take Buccaneers for granted after they upset Arkansas and stayed reasonably close at both L'Ville (lost 69-59) and Tennessee (lost 78-66) in preconference. Plus, Kentucky will have plenty of fan support in New Orleans , and SEC is 62% play as Big Dance chalk since 2007.
Wake Forest 72 - Texas 71--Neither team exuding much confidence heading into this tourney, with Wake Forest (9) dropping 5 of its last 6 games and Texas (8) stumbling to 7-9 mark last 16 after bolting to a 17-0 record and No. 1 ranking in the polls. Horn HC Rick Barnes, who is a former Clemson HC and North Carolina native, bemoans, 'We've been so inconsistent, and it's not just one guy; if I knew how to fix it, I would. It's from game to game wondering who is going to do their job. And it's not so much sometimes effort-wise, it's mentally." And while everything hasn't been hunky dory for Deacon mentor Dino Gaudio, good chance you'll get an inspired effort from usually-productive 6-9 soph F Al-Farouq Aminu (16 ppg, 11 rpg), who was benched for considerable amount of time in disappointing 83-62 loss vs. Miami-Florida in 1st-round of ACC tourney.
No question that Texas' offensive execution has suffered greatly due to injuries to a pair of PGs Varez Ward early in season and Dogus Balbay later in campaign. So, would give edge at the critical playmaking position to Wake's speedy, battle-tested sr. Ishmael Smith (13 ppg, 6 apg), who should be able to find seams in sagging Longhorn defense allowing 79 ppg over last 5 games. Sure, UT's dynamic 6-7 F Damion James (18 ppg, 10 rpg) wants to end memorable career on a high note. But with frontline mate 6-10 sr C Dexter Pittman (10 ppg, 6 rpg) still unreliable and prone to foul trouble, and foul shooting (65%) still a major concern, prefer to "take" with senior-laden, tough-boarding (led ACC), defense-minded WF (38% FGs, 28% from arc). Note, Deacs' are a profitable 6-1 as a single-digit dog TY, including 77-75 upset at Gonzaga on Dec. 5.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the New Orleans Arena in New Orleans, LA
Baylor 84 - Sam Houston State 76--Sam Houston (14) rates at least a puncher's chance against anybody, thanks to its long-range shooting exploits, ranking 8rd nationally in 3-pointers pg (8.9) and putting a scare into Kentucky in November at Cancun when nailing 18 of 38 beyond arc. Proving that was no fluke, the Bearkats dismantled a competent Auburn team on the road a few weeks later when canning 15 of 28 triples at Beard-Eaves Coliseum. Of course, SHSU's proclivity from the perimeter can also boomerang (as it did in a 40-point loss at Wright State), but with 3 starters hitting better than 40% beyond arc and explosive G Corey Allmond (15.8 ppg; 11 triples vs. UK!) capable of detonating at any time, Bearkats might be able to stay within earshot of Baylor (3).
Bears might be able to extend margin if the smallish Southland champs (no starter over 6-6) can't deal with 6-10 Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh (13.4 ppg, 4.1 blocks pg), who has the ability to contain active Bearkat post threat 6-6 juco Gilberto Clavell (who burned Auburn for 34). But despite their recent accomplishments, Bears (no Big Dance wins since the early '50s!) are in pretty unfamiliar NCAA territory, and Sam Houston has more firepower than usually found in a lower seed.
Old Dominion 51 - Notre Dame 49--Can't argue with results, so must commend Notre Dame (6) and HC Mike Brey for making a conscious attempt to slow tempo in wake of sr. PF Luke Harangody's late-season injury. Irish subsequently caught fire down stretch and enter the Dance having won 6 f their last 7 vs. rugged Big East competition (and covering each of those games) while also going "under" in all as well. Moreover, Harangody has returned to the fold for Irish, which saw G Tory Jackson and F Carlton Scott assume more go-to roles in Gody's absence. But matchups vs. no-nonsense ODU (11) even have Digger Phelps concerned from his ESPN perch. Defensively-stout Monarchs (allowing only 57.1 ppg, 5th best in nation) don't mind a slower pace themselves, and rugged 6-10 C Gerald Lee (14.9 ppg) will make Harangody play some defense on the blocks. What really concerns Phelps and Irish backers, however, is ODU's size on the wings, where 6-5 types Ben Finney and Kent Bazemore have the wingspan to really disrupt opponents from the perimeter. Remember, Monarchs won at Georgetown in December, one of many noteworthy CAA non-conference results, and Colonial reps have been notoriously tough outs (think VCU, George Mason and even ODU) in recent Dances.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City, OK
Kansas 87 - Lehigh 66--Kansas (1), the top overall seed in the tourney this year, has the personnel, experience, depth, and team stats to blow out lowly Lehigh (16)...IF the Jayhawks were 100% focused from wire to wire. And eventual 2009 champion North Carolina, with similar characteristics to KU this season, covered all six of its tourney games LY. But HC Bill Self will likely choose this game to not only get key his key players properly grooved, but also to give some of his talented youngsters a significant taste of NCAA tourney experience, especially after LY's third-round loss to Michigan State.
Representing the Patriot League (10-8 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994), the Mountain Hawks (formerly the Engineers) from Bethlehem, PA, ended the season in excellent form, winning 18 of their last 22, with one of the losses in OT. Lehigh features a good blend of experience and youth, the latter exemplified by 6-3 C.J. McCollum, the leading freshman scorer (18.9 ppg) in the country. Statistically sound on offense (75 ppg, 40% triples), with decent quickness and good chemistry, the Hawks would seem to have a chance to key things interesting, considering this is the biggest pointspread in the first round.
Northern Iowa 56 - Unlv 50--Edges appear to be small between these two foes, but disciplined Northern Iowa (9) from Cedar Rapids could very well use its better balance to good advantage. UNLV (8), with 6-4 jr. Tre'Von Willis (17.3 ppg) and 6-8 soph Chace Stanback (10.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg)--both also first team Mountain West Conference defense--has more overall quickness.
But the Panthers (28-4 TY; the Missouri Valley regular and conference champs) have exploited their balance well TY, thanks to 7-1, 290 C Jordan Eglseder (12 ppg, 7.3 rpg), cagey 6-8 sr. PF Adam Koch (11.8 ppg), and mobile Gs Ali Farokhmanesh (the shooter) and Kwadzo Ahelegbe (the point)--the hardest-to-spell backcourt duo in the country. UNLV coach Lon Kruger (NCAA tourney with four schools) is postseason wise. But UNI coach Ben Jacobson has coached his Panther team all year to play "tournament style," with tough defense, patient shot selection, and clutch execution. Plus, the Panthers nail 75% from the FT line. MVC reps a notable 13-6-1 vs. the spread the last 6 tourneys.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City, OK
Kansas State 89 - North Texas 67--Credit longtime head coach Johnny Jones for navigating North Texas (15) through a well-balanced Sun Belt and back into the NCAA field for a second time in the last four years. The veteran Mean Green managed three conference tourney victories by a total of 12 points, barely surviving lightly-regarded LouiSIAna-Monroe in the quarterfinals before finally edging by Troy in the late going during the championship game. Count UNT among the "just-happy-to-be-here" teams, and its stay is likely to come an abrupt end against resurgent Kansas State (2). Jones' squad likes a fast tempo, which should play right into the hands of the Wildcats (80 ppg), who have dynamic slashers all over the floor, led by veteran Gs Jacob Pullen & Denis Clemente (combined 35 ppg). KSU and ultra-intense mentor Frank Martin still seething after suffering a third loss to rival Kansas in the Big XII title game. They'll take out their frustration on the outmanned Mean Green.
Byu 84 - Florida 75--It's been nearly two decades since BYU (7) won an NCAA tournament game, as the Cougars have been dismissed in the first round of their last seven trips to the "Big Dance." However, this year's squad looks like it has a good chance to finally advance to the weekend. Up-and-down Florida (10) barely eked into the field after losing four of its last five games. And Billy Donovan's youthful Gators (only one senior on the roster) are far from a finished product. Sure, 6-9 jr. F Chandler Parson's ability to float to the perimeter makes him a tough matchup. But shot selection is definitely not the forte of UF's impetuous young Gs frosh Kenny Boynton (only 29% from three-point arc) and soph Erving Walker. Prefer to lay a few points with more veteran BYU. The potent Cougars (83 ppg--second in the country) have oodles of reliable weapons, led by prolific jr. G Jimmer Fredette (21.7 ppg), who's gone for 30+ seven times this season. And any late BYU lead likely to grow, as Mike Rose's bunch hits a nation's-best 79% from the free-throw line.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA
Utep 73 - Butler 69--True, Horizon League heavyweight Butler (5) enters this event not having lost a game since before Christmas, its 20 straight victories the longest current winning streak in the nation. And the well-coached Bulldogs have a lot more recent NCAA tourney experience than Conference USA rep UTEP (12), which is making its first trip to the "Big Dance" since 2005. But the Miners appear to pose some very thorny match-up issues for Brad Stevens' squad. In particular, will Butler be able to deal with bullish 6-9, 275-lb. Derrick Caracter? Foul-prone 6-8 jr. Matt Howard is likely to need lots of help guarding the paint against Caracter (13.8 ppg & 8 rpg), a Louisville transfer, and 6-11 soph Arnett Moultrie (10.1 ppg & 6.8 rpg). And, if the Bulldogs have to collapse their perimeter defense around that duo, UTEP's prolific jr. G Randy Culpepper (18 ppg) is capable of taking full advantage. It won't be a big surprise if well-coached Butler & multi-dimensional 6-9 soph swingman Gordon Hayward figure out a way to somewhat mitigate the Miners' inside muscle. UTEP just appears to hold enough trump cards to make small upset likely.
Murray State 65 - Vanderbilt 64--It would be a major mistake to underestimate Vanderbilt (4) just because it hit some sour notes down the stretch. Sure, home loss to sub-.500 South Carolina in the regular-season finale and double-digit defeat vs. Mississippi State in SEC semifinals at friendly Nashville venue revealed some chinks in the Commodores' armor. But Vandy is still a very potent foe that can attack inside with polished 6-11 jr. C A.J. Ogilvy (13.4 ppg & 6.2 rpg), or rain bombs from the perimeter behind savvy sr. Jermaine Beal (team-leading 14.7 ppg) and confident frosh John Jenkins (48% from beyond three-point arc). It's just that the 'Dores happened to draw one tough cookie in the first round. Hungry Murray State (13), a former "Big Dance" regular making its first trip since 2006, has superb scoring balance, with six players averaging between 10 and 11 ppg! The Racers possess patience on offense (50.3% FGs--No. 3 in the country) and a righteous work ethic on defense (only 38.6% FGs--No. 11 nationally), including 6-9 sr. Tony Easley (2.7 bpg) to deal with the Aussie Ogilvy, who has a tendency to go "walkabout" when faced with stiff opposition. MSU has already notched a school-record 30 victories this season and definitely has the wherewithal to make it 31.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Thursday, March 18 at HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA
New Mexico 71 - Montana 67--Outside of the latest James Bond flick, we can't recall anyone taking on so many opponents by himself as did Montana's (14) G Anthony Johnson in the Big Sky finale vs. Weber State, when he single-handedly led the Grizzlies back from a 20-point halftime deficit by scoring a Bevo Francis-like 34 points in the last 20 minutes (including Montana's last 21 points of the game!) en route to 42-point effort to declaw the host Wildcats at Ogden. Now, we suspect Johnson is going to need a bit more help for the Grizzlies to turn the same trick vs. MWC regular-season champ New Mexico (3), which ran off 14 straight wins prior to a 1-point loss in the MWC Tourney semis vs. San Diego State.
Respect the various dynamic elements on Steve Alford's roster, paced by wondrous 6-7 juco Darrington Hobson (15.9 ppg) and glue G Dairese Gary (12.4 ppg) but also featuring scoring sources throughout lineup. But Montana was competitive vs. a representative non-conference slate (won comfortably at Oregon and home vs. Boise, beat Loyola-Marymount twice, and came within 4 of Washington at Seattle), has good size for a mid-major with 6-11 low-post threat Brian Qvale, and has some others besides Johnson who can shoot (G Ryan Staudacher 46% triples; Grizzlies 49% from floor and 40.4 % beyond arc). Points worth a look!
Washington 79 - Marquette 75--This didn't seem to be a likely matchup a month ago, as U-Dub (11) had mostly disappointed and appeared likely to be bound for the NIT or one of the other lesser postseason events. But dynamics began to change in February, when the Huskies finally began to get comfy away from Seattle (they've now won 7 straight away from home, including last week's Pac-10 Tourney) and suddenly discovered a post presence in 6-9 C Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who has consistently been scoring in double digits the past six weeks. With some production having finally emerged on the blocks, it's created a bit more space for slashing 6-7 sr. Quincy Pondexter (20.2 ppg) and has prevented foes from overplaying mercurial 5-9 G Isaiah Thomas (17.2 ppg), from whom most of UW's offense flows.
A nailbiter would certainly be nothing new for Marquette (6), which was involved in one hair-raiser after another down the stretch and owns a valuable crunch-time threat in 6-6 sr. Lazar Hayward (18 ppg). But the smallish Golden Eagles (no starter over 6-6) won't have their normal quickness advantage vs. Lorenzo Romar's speedy troops, and scouts suggest there are plenty of other first-round matchups that would have worked out better for Buzz Williams' crew. Slight regional advantage in San Jose won't hurt Pac-10 Huskies, either.
COLLEGE INSIDER TOURNAMENT
THURSDAY, MARCH 18
Southern Miss 58 - LOUISIANA TECH 56--Since these teams appeared to be heading in opposite directions down the stretch, value seems to rest with USM, whose tough defense and patient offense makes it unlikely La Tech can think about extending any margin (much less having a margin to extend). Bulldogs flattened out noticeably after mid-January, as they couldn't post back-to-back SU wins thereafter and ended up dropping 10 of last 15 vs. line. La Tech's star G Kyle Gibson (18.4 ppg) was not the same down the stretch as he was limited by ankle woes, and not sure about status of 6-11 C Magnum Rolle (14 ppg), who rolled an ankle in WAC Tourney loss vs. Utah State. Meanwhile, Larry Eustachy's Eagles enter Ruston on a 13-4 pointspread roll.
FRIDAY, MARCH 19
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY
Syracuse 83 - Vermont 58--Whatever happened to Taylor Coppenrath? Unfortunately for Vermont (16), he's playing in Europe now, as this year's Catamounts don't possess a game-changing presence the likes of the versatile 6-9 Coppenrath, who helped lead UVM to a milestone first-round upset of Syracuse (1) back in 2005. Sure, physical 6-5 Cat sr. F Marqus Blakely (17.4 ppg & 9.4 rpg) is a dominant inside force at his own level. But he'll be "roofed" in the paint by the taller Orange frontliners. And Vermont (just 32% from three-point arc) probably won't be accurate enough from the perimeter to bomb effectively over 'Cuse's 2-3 zone. Even if Jim Boeheim decides to hold out 6-9 sr. F Arinze Onuaku, who's questionable with a quad injury, the overmatched Cats will be hard-pressed to prevent Orange star 6-7 jr. Wes Johnson (16 ppg & 8.4 rpg), 6-7 soph Kris Joseph, and 6-9 jr. Rick Jackson from doing major damage around the bucket, which in turn will create some wide-open looks on the perimeter for dead-eye sr. sharpshooter Andy Rautins. Add in the fact that America East reps are just 5-13 vs. the spread in the tourney since 1994, and laying fair price with revenge-minded Syracuse looks like the percentage play.
Gonzaga 70 - Florida State 61--The battle lines couldn't be more clear cut in this matchup. Will the high-octane offense of Gonzaga (8) find any creases in the stingy defense of Florida State (9)? Can the mostly feckless Seminole attack exploit the frequent holes the Bulldogs leave open on the stop end? Long, tall FSU has permitted a paltry 37% FGs this season, tops in the nation. The potent 'Zags counter with a well-orchestrated offense (49% FGs--No. 6 nationally) that can attack inside or out. Even if you believe in the cliché that says "defense wins championships," basketball is ultimately about putting the ball in the bucket. And the Seminoles, who could at least depend on clutch G Toney Douglas in crunch time last season, just don't have any reliable go-to guys on the perimeter this season. As long as 7-0 soph C Robert Sacre & springy 6-7 frosh Elias Harris don't allow FSU's bruising frontcourt to play ping-pong on the offensive glass, the Bulldogs' vastly superior backcourt of 6-5 sr. Matt Bouldin & 6-5 jr. Steven Gray (combined 30 ppg) should hold sway and propel tourney-savvy Mark Few's Gonzaga bunch into the next round.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, NY
West Virginia 78 - Morgan State 67--Though West Virginia (2) riding high after capturing the Big East tourney, still interested in taking lofty number with a capable, battle-tested Morgan State squad (15) eager to make a better showing in its 2nd NCAA appearance following 82-54 smashing vs. Oklahoma LY. The Bears certainly won't be intimidated by the Big East juggernaut after battling Louisville in Freedom Hall (lost by just 9), upsetting Arkansas 97-94 on the road, and hanging much of the way in 79-63 setback at Baylor in preconference (MSU trailed just 39-36 at H). The fast-paced Bears (77 ppg) own a terrific inside-outside tandem in 6-9 soph Kevin Thompson (13 ppg, 12 rpg, 52% FGs) and electric 6-4 sr. G Reggie Holmes (22 ppg, 4 rpg, 36% from arc), who can create his own shot vs. WV's man-to-man. And if Huggins goes to a 1-3-1 zone, aforementioned Holmes, frosh F DeWayne Jackson (MEAC Rookie of Year is loop's top 3-pt. marksman) and sharp-shooting sr. G Troy Smith ( 9 ppg, 39% from arc) capable connecting from long range. Mounties' outstanding 6-7 F Da'Sean Butler (17 ppg, 6 rpg, 3 apg) and 6-9 soph F Devin Eubanks (12 ppg, 8 rpg) are prime-time performers, but G play has been spotty at times. Plus, WV has had a tendency for slow starts, as Mounties' just 5-7 as DD chalk TY. So, no surprise to see aggressive, well-schooled Bears (2nd in Div. I in FTs attempted!)--under tutelage of crafty HC Todd Bozeman (MEAC Coach of Year for 3 straight seasons)--stay inside roomy number.
Clemson 81 - Missouri 75--Recognize that Clemson (7) hasn't had much success in NCAAs lately, losing to lower-seeded teams each of the past two seasons. But believe veteran, uptempo Clemson (2 jrs. & 2 srs. in starting 5) able to finally get over the hurdle vs. a somewhat vulnerable Missouri team entering the Big Dance in a shooting funk. Mizzou has made just 36% FGs and a horrific 22 % from arc (18 of 80!) in its last 4 games, 3 of which were losses. And Columbia observers report Mizzou hasn't adequately replaced "glue guy" 6-8 F Jason Safford (9 ppg, 5 rpg) down the stretch. Missouri's best recipe for success is forcing TOs with its variety of presses and then scoring quick transition hoops, don't think that M.O. will work so well vs. Clemson's seasoned distributor Demontez Stitt (11 ppg, 3 apg), who is playing with greater confidence and aggressiveness down the stretch. Missouri's glaring weakness is lack of quality post players (sans aformentioned Safford). So in a halfcourt game, must give decided advantage to Clemson, which owns one of the better insider scorers in relentless 6-7, 240 F Trevor Booker (15 ppg, 8 rpg), who is nicely complemented by springy 6-8 F Jerai Grant (4 blocked shots, 4 steals past 3 games), the son of former NBA player Horace Grant. And with Clemson's emerging frosh G Noel Johnson (4 of 5 beyond arc in ACC 1st-round game) firing with more confidence, expect Oliver Purnell's squad to outgun Mike Anderson's crew in a potentially high-scoring Tiger vs. Tiger shootout.
NCAA EAST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, FL
Temple 72 - Cornell 63--Fascinating matchup here between the teacher and pupil. Temple (5) HC Fran Dunphy, who is going to the NCAAs for the 12th time (9 times at Penn, 3 straight at Temple) has been a mentor for Cornell (12) HC Steve Donahue, who served as an assistant on Dunphy's staff at Penn for 10 years before taking the job at Ithaca. And while it's been trendy to pick the 12th seed upset over the 5th seed in the tourney (a slew of ESPN "experts" have done so already), we prefer to take the surging, more athletic Owls, who are riding a 10-game win streak (8-1-1 vs. spread).
Cornell has suffered DD losses in last two NCAA 1st--rounders. But do expect a more competitive effort from a 27-4 Cornell contingent that dominated the Ivy League, upset Bama 71-67 in Tuscaloosa in its season opener, and gave Kansas a scare in narrow 71-67 loss in Lawrence on Jan. 6. Big Red owns a productive inside-outside attack--featuring straight-shooting G Ryan Wittman (18 ppg), son of former NBA player Randy Wittman, and 7-0 C Jeff Foote (12 ppg, 8 rpg). But Cornell hard-pressed to find any rhythm vs. smothering Temple defense (57 ppg, 38% FGs, 28% from tripleville) highly disruptive both on the interior and on the perimeter. Look for Temple's lock-down defender G Ryan Brooks to shadow Wittman, while Owls' "double-double" machine 6-9 F Lavoy Allen tough provides matchup for Cornell. And in crunch time, we prefer Owls' dazzling 6-4 soph Juan Fernandez 12 ppg, 4 apg, 45% from arc), who thrives in high-pressure games. Moreover, Ivy teams haven't won an NCAA game since 1998, And A-10 squads are 5-0-1 vs. spread in Big Dance since 2005.
Wisconsin 69 - Wofford 54--We don't envision another one-sided affair like Wisconsin's (4) 70-43 bashing vs. Wofford (13) in Madison back in 2007. We do look for the healthy Badgers to cover a reasonable number vs. scrappy, but offensively-containable Terrier squad making its 1st-ever NCAA appearance. Wofford, which is riding a 13-game win streak, did play a challenging preconference slate, hanging tough at Pitt, while defeating Georgia on the road and South Carolina at home. Not bad. But believe, the Terriers will have trouble once again preparing the Badgers' unique swing attack, spearheaded by physical Gs Trevon Hughes (15 ppg, 5 rpg), marksman Jason Bohannon (12 ppg, 4 rpg), and hard-to-guard 6-10 F Jon Leuer (15 ppg, 6 rpg; 39% from arc), who is back to full strength after missing 9 games due to a wrist injury. And Wiscy's backcourt play has improved with maturation of soph G Jordan Taylor (10 ppg, 4 apg).
Defense-pressuring Wofford gets lots of quick, transition hoops off turnovers, but it's highly unlikely Terriers force many miscues vs. disciplined, methodical Badgers (nation-fewest 9 TOs pg!). And doubt unbalanced Wofford finds a groove in its halfcourt offense, with 6-6 F jr. Noah Dahlman (17 ppg, 6 rpg), voted the Southern Conference Player of the Year--the only DD scorer on the roster--struggling vs. Badgers' "packed-in" man-to-man. In addition, Bo Ryan's resilient squad has played well following a losing effort, going 7-2 vs. spread last 9 in that situation. Defensively-stout Wisconsin (56 ppg), which leads the nation in protecting the defensive glass, advances to next round with a not-so-pretty DD win in this anticipated "grinder."
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, FL
Duke 79 - Arkansas-Pine Bluff 58--Considering Pine Bluff's (16) aforementioned respectable showings vs. a series of accomplished big-time opponents, Golden Lions might not be as helpless as other "16s" against a power foe such as Duke (1). Although Blue Devils enter the Dance having won 12 of last 13 SU, they didn't look overwhelming at the ACC Tourney when failing to cover all three of their games. And considering his rather shallow bench, Coach K is unlikely to burden his overworked Duke starters with far more-challenging assignments just ahead. Blue Devils just one cover in last five Big Dance first-round appearances.
Duke 75 - Winthrop 55--Winthrop's (16) results were a bit mixed vs. top-flight opposition (crushed by 36 at Clemson, but not humiliated in losses vs. Charlotte, Cincinnati, and NC State). And Eagles often struggle mightily on attack end without a go-to scoring threat. But the Big South Tourney champs will have won 12 of their last 15 SU if they reach this assignment, and there's enough evidence to suggest Winthrop might not get completely embarrassed by Duke (1). Coach K not compelled to run up this score and expose his starters to unnecessary wear-and-tear with bigger challenges looming just ahead, and not sure thin Blue Devil bench will be able to extend margin in late going.
California 77 - Louisville 72--It's hard to forecast which Louisville (9) team shows up at the Ford Center, given the Cards' bipolar tendencies that were reflected in a series of back-and-forth efforts that became more pronounced in latter stages of campaign. Although Louisville rates a defensive edge over Pac-10 regular-season champ Cal (8), much prefer sr.-laden Bears' firepower and three-pronged strike force of Gs Jerome Randle (18.7 ppg), Patrick Christopher (16 ppg) & F Theo Robertson (13.8 ppg), the latter's absence having proven costly in early-season play when Bears lost vs. top intersectional foes Syracuse, Ohio State, and New Mexico. This UL edition lacks its usual backcourt star power, with G Edgar Sosa (only 36.7% from floor) prone to go cold, while rugged 6-9 Samardo Samuels' disturbing tendency to get into foul trouble has made Cards a risky investment (except when playing Svracuse, that is). And we don't rate Rick Pitino any sideline edge over respected Cal mentor Mike Montgomery, either.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Ohio State 71 - UC Santa Barbara 61--Ohio State (2) certainly deserves to be a substantial favorite considering its impressive 90-61 plastering of Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney final on Sunday. But the Buckeyes have often been prone to relax a bit, covering only 4 of their last 11 as a double-digit favorite. And, with do-everything G/F Evan Turner (19.9 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 5.9 apg, 53.8% FGs) around, the Buckeyes can usually afford to cruise in games until Turner decides it's winnin' time, taking over after previously dishing to 6-5 soph William Buford (14.5 ppg) and trey-bomber Jon Diebler (12.6 ppg, 42% three-balls).
But UCSB (15), the regular-season and tourney champs of the lightly-regarded Big West, would appear have a decent chance to remain to competitive vs. its Big Ten foe. Although this is the Gauchos' first NCAA tourney since 2002, respected HC Bob Williams is in his 11th year in Santa Barbara and his 22nd overall. He returned a deep, veteran team this season, augmented by 6-5 Loyola-Marymount transfer Orlando Johnson (18 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 40% treys), who quickly became the Player of the Year in the Big West. 6-5 soph James Nunnally (15 ppg. 5.7 rpg) is a valid complement, and 6-2 sr. James Powell (41% triples) is the leading trey shooter in the history of the league. Although outmanned to a degree, Williams' boys have shown they are well schooled to handle any game situation.
Oklahoma State 74 - Georgia Tech 69--Slight nod to fast-closing Oklahoma State (7), which surprisingly developed a new-found chemistry toward the end of the season after PG Ray Penn was felled with a stress fracture in mid-February. 6-6 jr. A-A James Anderson (22.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg) was already the established star. But the likes of 5-10 soph shooter Keiton Page (14 ppg last 10 games) began providing more help for Anderson, and burly 6-6 lefty Marshall Moses (8.2 rpg) & 6-8 Kentucky transfer Matt Pilgrim (6.8 rpg) began providing more banging inside. The Cowboys were able to shoot down Kansas 85-77 Feb. 27 in Stillwater.
Yes, Georgia Tech (10) is talented and formidable foe, especially with its height, including 6-9 jr. Gani Lawal (13.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and 6-10 future NBA star Derrick Favors (12.2 ppg, 8.5 rpg). But the rest of the coach Paul Hewitt's team has lacked consistency, partly due to youth. And the Yellow Jackets connect on only 64% from the FT stripe compared with OSU's 71.5%. It must be noted that both teams have struggled on the road. Ga. Tech lost 8 of its last 9 away prior to its 3-1 run in the ACC tourney. OSU was 4-8 its last 12 on the road vs. quality opposition.
NCAA WEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI
Pittsburgh 74 - Oakland 59--We're not exactly sure what to make of Oakland (14). On the one hand, the Golden Grizzlies (11 straight victories) enter the tourney with plenty of momentum after laying waste to the Summit League (formerly Mid-Continent Conference). On the other hand, while we credit head coach Greg Kampe (25 years at the helm!) for his ambitious non-conference scheduling, it's hard not to notice that Oakland was blasted by 30+ points at Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State and Syracuse. Sure, Pittsburgh (3) might be a cut below at least three of that mighty quartet. But the Grizz also suffered decisive double-digit losses at Wisconsin and at a very sub-par Oregon edition earlier in the campaign. The confident Kampe says he believes the Sweet 16 is a realistic goal for his team, but Oakland's inability to step up vs. better competition makes us doubt they can get by a Panther side forged tough in the crucible of the rugged Big East. Pitt much more conscientious on the defensive end than the permissive Grizzlies, and clever mentor Jamie Dixon will make sure Oakland has tough time getting the ball to star 6-11 jr. C Keith Benson in the post.
Xavier 60 - Minnesota 55--Tough call, if mostly because Minnesota (11) head coach Tubby Smith has so much more NCAA tournament experience (including a national championship) than rookie counterpart Chris Mack of Xavier (6). Still, the Musketeers hold most of the other edges in this matchup. Credit the Golden Gophers for recovering from the loss of PG Al Nolen to academic problems midway through the season. With soph Devoe Joseph gradually growing accustomed to his role as main playmaker, Minnesota managed to eke out an invitation to the "Big Dance" on the strength of its foray all the way to finals of the Big 10 tournament, where the Gophers were smashed by Ohio State 90-61. We consider Xavier's credentials much stronger, as it tied for the regular-season title of the underrated Atlantic 10. And there seems to be little question that the Musketeers possess the superior offense, led by the inside-out duo of rugged 6-9 sr. Jason Love (11.9 ppg & 8.6 rpg) and smooth soph Indiana transfer Jordan Crawford (19.7 ppg). Plus, don't underestimate the experience Mack gained as an assistant under former boss Sean Miller, who took Xavier (13-4-2 vs. the spread in the NCAA tourney since 2000!) to the Sweet 16 last year and all the way to the Elite Eight the prior season.
NCAA MIDWEST REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at the Spokane Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA
New Mexico State 69 - Michigan State 71--Although Michigan State (5) might have the edge with its half-court style and tournament experience (Spartans are 15-8 as a favorite in the Big Dance since 1999), few in East Lansing would say this is a vintage MSU team. The Spartans were only 5-5 SU their last 10 games, with key PG Kalin Lucas slowed by a balky ankle and G Chris Allen recently suspended (but now expected back for "not being a good teammate." Nonetheless, expect Tom Izzo's crew to play resolutely after their quarterfinal loss to Minnesota in the first round of the Big Ten tourney.
However, MSU might find New Mexico State (12) a difficult animal to snare, as the Aggies and their five double-digit scorers are brimming with confidence after their road upset of Utah State to win the WAC tourney. Former Rick Pitino assistant Marvin Menzies has a pair of outside bombers in 6-5 jr. Jahmar Young (20.5 ppg) and 6-1 sr. Jonathan Gibson, while 6-8 Troy Gillenwater (14.4 ppg) can score inside and 6-11 Hamidu Rahman patrols the paint. For sure, N.M. State might shoot itself out of the game. But the Aggies' frenetic style might be disconcerting for a Spartan team looking to find its best stride.
Maryland 82 - Houston 78--Maryland (4) is disappointed by its quarterfinal exit vs. Ga. Tech in the ACC tourney, especially since no team has ever lost the first game of its conference tournament and then gone on to win the NCAA title. And the Terrapins had been full of enthuSIAsm afer knocking off Duke late in the campaign to earn a share of first place in the ACC regular season. Led by clutch G Greivis Vasquez (19.5 ppg, 6 apg), Maryland has balance (four players in DDs), scoring power (79 ppg), and defense (38.8% FGs) to make a deep run in this event.
And make no mistake, Houston (13) is a "hully-gully" team that will fire away, led by the nation's leading scorer, Aubrey Coleman (25.6 ppg, plus 2.7 spg!) and soph G Kelvin Lewis, who makes nearly three treys pg. The Cougars were only 7-9 in the C-USA in the regular season and needed to win 4 games in 4 days to capture the tourney title, and they are still only 19-15 overall. But HC Tom Penders (previously has taken Rhode Island, Texas & George Washington to the NCAAs) attributes the choppy regular season partly to a long-running string of injuries. However, Penders now says UH is healthier, 10-deep and plenty versatile, as he used a 4-G lineup to come from behind to subdue UTEP in the C-USA title game. With the early pointspread near DDs, prefer to give "hully-gully" a chance vs. Terp team that also plays uptempo.
NCAA SOUTH REGIONAL
Friday, March 19 at Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA
Utah State 65 - Texas A&M 61--After sweating out an at-large bid following an unexpected loss in WAC finale to New Mexico State that ended a 17-game win streak, expect Utah State (12) to reward the Selection Committee's faith. Regional observers believe "method" teams such as A&M (5) play into the hands of respected tactician Stew Morrill, whose varied Utag defensive looks are more vulnerable to the sort of street ball that NMSU resorted to in Reno. Although A&M G Donald Sloan (17.9 ppg) a respected go-to threat in clutch, Marc Turgeon's troops not likely to go rogue, and frontline scrappers such as 6-9 C Bryan Davis & 6-8 F David Loubeau not likely to intimidate Morrill's physical low-post components Tai Wesley & Nate Bendall. Besides Morrill's ever-changing defensive looks, USU does a lot of things well (2nd nationally in 3-point shooting at 42%, 7th in FTs at 76.3%). Not comfy laying points with A&M squad that has shortcomings at charity stripe (just 65%) and TO problems...hardly a positive vs. a Morrill-coached team.
Siena 66 - Purdue 62--Upset alert! Or is it? After all, veteran Metro-Atlantic champ Siena (13) is a known quantity by now, and it returns much the same team that defeated Vanderbilt and Ohio State, respectively, in the last two Big Dance first rounds. Meanwhile, Purdue (4) isn't as bad as it looked when getting routed in the Big Ten Tourney by Minnesota, but obviously isn't taking a lot of momentum to the Dance after multi-dimensional jr. F Robbie Hummel (15.7 ppg; a poor man's Larry Bird?) went down with late-season knee injury. And the Boilermakers got another scare in the Big Ten Tourney when energizer-bunny G Lewis Jackson re-aggravated a foot injury that kept him out the first half of the season (though he's expected to be ready by Friday). Nonetheless, Hummel's absence has robbed Purdue of its most-unique dimension, and Fran McCaffery's well-coordinated and versatile Saints attack is able to pound in paint with rugged PF Alex Franklin (16.3 ppg), strike from the wings with 6-6 matchup nightmare Edwin Ubiles (14.3 ppg), bomb from perimeter with 3-point threat Clarence Jackson (13.6 ppg), and probe effectively with sr. PG Ronald Moore. Is the wrong team favored?
COLLEGE HOOPS KEY RELEASES
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RICHMOND by 10 over Saint Mary's (Thursday, March 18 Day)
GONZAGA by 9 over Florida State (Friday, March 19)
NEW MEXICO STATE Plus over Michigan State (Fri., March 19))
